- The Marlins are -190 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds starting pitcher: –
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Cincinnati Reds (+155) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-190) on Saturday, May 13, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Miami.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Reds vs Marlins Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
This season, the Reds are 17-21 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 14-25 ATS.
Reds vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -135 | O 7 -115 | +155 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +110 | U 7 -105 | -190 |
Reds vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Reds vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 26 of his last 37 games (+14.15 Units / 34% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 29 games (+12.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 37 games (+11.45 Units / 31% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 29 games (+9.70 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 14 away games (+8.75 Units / 56% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jorge Soler has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+9.95 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jean Segura has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+9.80 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jorge Soler has hit the RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+8.45 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 33 games (+8.40 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jorge Soler has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.15 Units / 25% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 37 games (+9.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 away games (+6.75 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 38 games (+5.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games (+5.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 away games (+2.70 Units / 22% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+7.55 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 6 games (+6.40 Units / 101% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+4.40 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.20 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 28 games (+3.55 Units / 12% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 23-15 against the Run Line (+8.15 Units / 17.32% ROI).
- 17-21 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.3 Units / -5.53% ROI
- 20-18 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.5 Units / 1.21% ROI
- 18-20 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.1 Units / -9.72% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 14-25 against the Run Line (-17.75 Units / -32.96% ROI).
- 19-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.3 Units / 0.7% ROI
- 17-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.05 Units / -14.1% ROI
- 21-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.3 Units / 5.36% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Lodolo has allowed a BABIP of .461 against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: .301 — 0 Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has allowed an OPS of 1.512 (99 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 1.054 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .414 (41-for-99) against Nick Lodolo on pitches in the strike zone this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: .291 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .391 (25 GB hits out of 64 GBs) against Nick Lodolo with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: .244 — 0 Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
starting pitcher – home
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Reds are just 21-23 (.477) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .703.
The Reds are just 21-30 (.412) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .650.
The Reds are just 64-6 (.914) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .953.
The Reds are just 55-12 (.821) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
keys to the game – home
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds have not won a game in which they have scored first on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 65%.
The Reds have scored first in just 12% of their road games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
The Reds are batting just .311 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.
The Reds are batting just .151 with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .629 (1,617 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .720.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .289 (1,120 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .285 (1,617 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Marlins hitters have grounded into 38 double plays in 234 opportunities (16%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
team pitchers – away
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 74% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
The Marlins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 63% of their games this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 49% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Marlins vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Ear Infection, D10
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D15
- Jon Chargois (Marlins): Oblique, D15
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D15
- Nicholas Enright (Marlins): Illness, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- AvisaÃl GarcÃa (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Fernando Cruz (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Foot/Calf, Day-to-Day
- Terry Friedl (Reds): Oblique, Day-to-Day
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Bicep/Shoulder, D10
Bet now on Reds vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
