- The Marlins are -190 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds starting pitcher: –
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Cincinnati Reds (+155) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-190) on Saturday, May 13, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Miami.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Reds vs Marlins Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
This season, the Reds are 17-21 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 14-25 ATS.
Reds vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -135 | O 7 -115 | +155 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +110 | U 7 -105 | -190 |
Reds vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Reds vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 26 of his last 37 games (+14.15 Units / 34% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 29 games (+12.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 37 games (+11.45 Units / 31% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 29 games (+9.70 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 14 away games (+8.75 Units / 56% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jorge Soler has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+9.95 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jean Segura has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+9.80 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jorge Soler has hit the RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+8.45 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 33 games (+8.40 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jorge Soler has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.15 Units / 25% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 37 games (+9.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 away games (+6.75 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 38 games (+5.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games (+5.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 away games (+2.70 Units / 22% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+7.55 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 6 games (+6.40 Units / 101% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+4.40 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.20 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 28 games (+3.55 Units / 12% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 23-15 against the Run Line (+8.15 Units / 17.32% ROI).
- 17-21 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.3 Units / -5.53% ROI
- 20-18 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.5 Units / 1.21% ROI
- 18-20 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.1 Units / -9.72% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 14-25 against the Run Line (-17.75 Units / -32.96% ROI).
- 19-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.3 Units / 0.7% ROI
- 17-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.05 Units / -14.1% ROI
- 21-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.3 Units / 5.36% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Lodolo has allowed a BABIP of .461 against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: .301 — 0 Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has allowed an OPS of 1.512 (99 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 1.054 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .414 (41-for-99) against Nick Lodolo on pitches in the strike zone this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: .291 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .391 (25 GB hits out of 64 GBs) against Nick Lodolo with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: .244 — 0 Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 55% of Sandy Alcantara’s pitches (365/659) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 48% — 98th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has thrown his changeup 27% of the time (49/181) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 98th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has had second base stolen on him 29 times since last season — 2nd most in MLB — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of 41% (75/181) against Sandy Alcantara on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 97th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
keys to the game – away
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Marlins are just 63-17 (.788) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.
The Marlins are just 13-39 (.250) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .350.
The Marlins are just 10-71 (.123) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .197.
The Marlins are 23-3 (.885) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .800.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds have not won a game in which they have scored first on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 65%.
The Reds have scored first in just 12% of their road games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
The Reds are batting just .311 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.
The Reds are batting just .151 with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .327 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .313 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .365 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .260.
Reds pitchers have walked 158 of 1,762 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
team pitchers – home
Marlins vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Ear Infection, D10
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D15
- Jon Chargois (Marlins): Oblique, D15
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D15
- Nicholas Enright (Marlins): Illness, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- AvisaÃl GarcÃa (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Fernando Cruz (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Foot/Calf, Day-to-Day
- Terry Friedl (Reds): Oblique, Day-to-Day
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Bicep/Shoulder, D10
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