- The Marlins are -155 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds starting pitcher: Luke Weaver
- Marlins starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Cincinnati Reds (+125) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-155) on Sunday, May 14, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Reds vs Marlins Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Reds are 18-21 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 14-26 ATS.
Reds vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -160 | O 8 +100 | +125 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +135 | U 8 -120 | -155 |
Reds vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 27 of his last 38 games (+15.25 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Runs Over in 23 of his last 38 games (+12.95 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+9.75 Units / 58% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 31 games (+9.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+8.90 Units / 41% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jorge Soler has hit the RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+9.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jean Segura has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+8.80 Units / 69% ROI)
- Jorge Soler has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 21 games at home (+8.55 Units / 25% ROI)
- Joey Wendle has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 76% ROI)
Marlins vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
| Henry Ramos | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
Marlins vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Henry Ramos | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jon Berti | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Henry Ramos | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Marlins vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Braxton Garrett | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
| Luke Weaver | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 38 games (+10.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+7.20 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 39 games (+6.90 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 away games (+5.75 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+3.45 Units / 39% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+6.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 21 games at home (+4.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games (+2.00 Units / 22% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 24-15 against the Run Line (+9.15 Units / 19.02% ROI).
- 18-21 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.2 Units / -0.47% ROI
- 21-18 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.5 Units / 3.53% ROI
- 18-21 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.25 Units / -12.11% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 14-26 against the Run Line (-18.9 Units / -34.36% ROI).
- 19-21 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.2 Units / -4.84% ROI
- 18-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.05 Units / -11.49% ROI
- 21-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.15 Units / 2.61% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .480 (12-for-25) against Luke Weaver on low fastballs since last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .266 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .397 (31-for-78) against Luke Weaver with runners in scoring position since last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .242 — first Percentile.
Luke Weaver has an ERA of 6.87 (32.0 IP)since last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 3.50 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .317 (77-for-243) against Luke Weaver since last season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .228 — first Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
starting pitcher – home
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Reds are just 21-23 (.477) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .703.
The Reds are just 65-6 (.915) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .953.
The Reds are 6-17 (.261) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .109.
The Reds are just 6-12 (.333) on the road this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .483.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Marlins are just 1-19 (.050) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Marlins are just 13-39 (.250) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .351.
The Marlins are just 63-17 (.788) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.
The Marlins are 23-3 (.885) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .799.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .215 with two-strikes this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.
The Reds have scored first in just 12% of their road games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Reds hitters have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Reds hitters have an OPS of just .439 (807 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .515.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have grounded into 39 double plays in 241 opportunities (16%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .344 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .629 (1,617 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .720.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .285 (1,617 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .312 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .325 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Reds pitchers have walked 758 of 7,745 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Reds pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 49% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 41%.
The Marlins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 74% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Andrew Puk (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Foot, Day-to-Day
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D15
- Jon Chargois (Marlins): Oblique, D15
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D15
- Nicholas Enright (Marlins): Illness, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jesús Sánchez (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- AvisaÃl GarcÃa (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Fernando Cruz (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Casey Legumina (Reds): Ankle, D15
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D15
- Terry Friedl (Reds): Oblique, Day-to-Day
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Bicep/Shoulder, D10
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