Reds vs Mets Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 9

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 09, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Mets (71-39) are -350 favorites vs the Reds (44-64)
  • Reds starting pitcher: Michael Minor (1-8), 6.19 ERA
  • Mets starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco (12-4), 3.82 ERA
  • Watch the game on SNY

The Cincinnati Reds (+260) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-350) on Tuesday, August 9, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+100).

The Reds vs Mets Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Reds are 44-64 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 61-49 ATS.

Reds vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Reds+2.5 -120O 8.5 -105+260
Mets -2.5 +100U 8.5 -115-350

Reds vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 53.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Mets vs Reds and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 28 games (+11.30 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the Runs Under in 29 of his last 39 away games (+10.70 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.40 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+8.80 Units / 43% ROI)

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Starling Marte has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 38 games at home (+15.70 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 28 games (+14.35 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Starling Marte has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 38 games at home (+12.85 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+12.00 Units / 70% ROI)
  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in his last 11 games (+11.80 Units / 48% ROI)

Mets vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ruf 0.5 +300 0.5 -450
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 +340 0.5 -600
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +320 0.5 -550
Luis Guillorme 0.5 +1150 0.5
Mark Canha 0.5 +350 0.5 -650

Mets vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ruf 0.5 -190 0.5 +130
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Francisco Lindor 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Luis Guillorme 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Mark Canha 0.5 -225 0.5 +155

Mets vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ruf 0.5 +125 0.5 -175
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +135 0.5 -200
Luis Guillorme 0.5 +270 0.5 -450
Mark Canha 0.5 +170 0.5 -250

Mets vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Mike Minor 3.5 -160 3.5 +115
Carlos Carrasco 6.5 +105 6.5 -150
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 80 games (+16.05 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+12.20 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 82 games (+9.20 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.90 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 20 of their last 33 away games (+7.15 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 48 games at home (+23.22 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 71 of their last 110 games (+19.75 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 61 of their last 110 games (+14.80 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 48 games at home (+13.20 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 72 games (+11.10 Units / 14% ROI)

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 52-56 against the Run Line (-9.7 Units / -7.21% ROI).

  • 44-64 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.75 Units / -6.7% ROI
  • 55-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.95 Units / -2.46% ROI
  • 52-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.6 Units / -7.26% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 61-49 against the Run Line (+14.8 Units / 11.12% ROI).

  • 71-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +19.75 Units / 12.06% ROI
  • 57-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.15 Units / 5.05% ROI
  • 46-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.15 Units / -13.41% ROI

Mike Minor has allowed a slugging percentage of .646 (106 Total Bases / 164 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: .403 — 0 Percentile.

Mike Minor has allowed an OPS of 1.050 (193 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: .709 — 0 Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 25% (33/132) against Mike Minor this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 0 Percentile.

25 of Mike Minor’s 80 breaking pitch strikeouts (31%) have been backdoor since the start of last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 97th Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting .381 (24-for-63) against Carlos Carrasco on inside fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .256 — second Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .508 (31-for-61) against Carlos Carrasco when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .334 — first Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .667 (42 Total Bases / 63 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .416 — second Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of 31% (186/597) against Carlos Carrasco in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Reds are just 33-7 (.825) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .913.

The Reds are just 31-7 (.816) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.

The Reds are just 8-28 (.222) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .283.

The Reds are 8-4 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Mets are 25-5 (.833) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .710.

The Mets are 52-5 (.912) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .797.

The Mets are 61-3 (.953) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .913.

The Mets are 35-21 (.625) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .473.

Reds hitters are slugging just .333 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .390.

Reds hitters have an OBP of just .280 (490 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .326.

Reds hitters have an OPS of just .621 (1,918 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.

The Reds are batting just .221 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.

Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .271 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .219.

Mets hitters have just 568 strikeouts in 2,905 PA’s (20%) against RHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Mets hitters have an OBP of .333 (2,905 PA’s) against RHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .311.

The Mets have scored first in 70% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 56 double plays in 832 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Reds pitchers have walked 406 of 4,163 batters (10%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds pitchers have walked 1,023 of 10,362 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 30% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Mets vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Dominic Smith (Mets): Ankle, D10
  • Raymond Hunter (Mets): Back, D15
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Andrew Smith (Mets): Back, D15
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Christian Greene (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
  • Michael Moustakas (Reds): Calf, Day-to-Day
  • Robert Dugger (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D15
  • Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D10
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.