- The Mets (71-39) are -350 favorites vs the Reds (44-64)
- Reds starting pitcher: Michael Minor (1-8), 6.19 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco (12-4), 3.82 ERA
- Watch the game on SNY
The Cincinnati Reds (+260) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-350) on Tuesday, August 9, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+100).
The Reds vs Mets Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Reds are 44-64 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 61-49 ATS.
Reds vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +2.5 -120 | O 8.5 -105 | +260 |
| Mets | -2.5 +100 | U 8.5 -115 | -350 |
Reds vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 53.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 28 games (+11.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Runs Under in 29 of his last 39 away games (+10.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+8.80 Units / 43% ROI)
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Starling Marte has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 38 games at home (+15.70 Units / 36% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 28 games (+14.35 Units / 24% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 38 games at home (+12.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+12.00 Units / 70% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in his last 11 games (+11.80 Units / 48% ROI)
Mets vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ruf | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -450 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Luis Guillorme | 0.5 +1150 | 0.5 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
Mets vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ruf | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Luis Guillorme | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
Mets vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ruf | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -175 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -200 |
| Luis Guillorme | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
Mets vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Minor | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +115 |
| Carlos Carrasco | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -150 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 80 games (+16.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+12.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 82 games (+9.20 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.90 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 20 of their last 33 away games (+7.15 Units / 20% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 48 games at home (+23.22 Units / 41% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 71 of their last 110 games (+19.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 61 of their last 110 games (+14.80 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 48 games at home (+13.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 72 games (+11.10 Units / 14% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 52-56 against the Run Line (-9.7 Units / -7.21% ROI).
- 44-64 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.75 Units / -6.7% ROI
- 55-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.95 Units / -2.46% ROI
- 52-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.6 Units / -7.26% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 61-49 against the Run Line (+14.8 Units / 11.12% ROI).
- 71-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +19.75 Units / 12.06% ROI
- 57-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.15 Units / 5.05% ROI
- 46-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.15 Units / -13.41% ROI
Michael Minor: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mike Minor has allowed a slugging percentage of .646 (106 Total Bases / 164 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: .403 — 0 Percentile.
Mike Minor has allowed an OPS of 1.050 (193 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: .709 — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 25% (33/132) against Mike Minor this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 0 Percentile.
25 of Mike Minor’s 80 breaking pitch strikeouts (31%) have been backdoor since the start of last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 97th Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .381 (24-for-63) against Carlos Carrasco on inside fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .256 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .508 (31-for-61) against Carlos Carrasco when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .334 — first Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .667 (42 Total Bases / 63 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .416 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 31% (186/597) against Carlos Carrasco in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Reds are just 33-7 (.825) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .913.
The Reds are just 31-7 (.816) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.
The Reds are just 8-28 (.222) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .283.
The Reds are 8-4 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Mets are 25-5 (.833) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .710.
The Mets are 52-5 (.912) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Mets are 61-3 (.953) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .913.
The Mets are 35-21 (.625) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .473.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .333 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .390.
Reds hitters have an OBP of just .280 (490 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .326.
Reds hitters have an OPS of just .621 (1,918 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Reds are batting just .221 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .271 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .219.
Mets hitters have just 568 strikeouts in 2,905 PA’s (20%) against RHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .333 (2,905 PA’s) against RHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .311.
The Mets have scored first in 70% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 56 double plays in 832 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Reds pitchers have walked 406 of 4,163 batters (10%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,023 of 10,362 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 30% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Dominic Smith (Mets): Ankle, D10
- Raymond Hunter (Mets): Back, D15
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Smith (Mets): Back, D15
- Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Christian Greene (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
- Michael Moustakas (Reds): Calf, Day-to-Day
- Robert Dugger (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D15
- Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D10
- Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
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