- The Mets are -150 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds vs Mets Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Reds / Mets TV Channel: FDOH | SNY
The Cincinnati Reds (+125) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-150) on Friday, July 18, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Reds are 50-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 49-48 ATS.
Reds vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Nick Lodolo 6-6, 3.41 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Brandon Waddell 0-0, 3.81 ERA
Reds vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -160 | O 7.5 +100 | +125 |
| Mets | -1.5 +135 | U 7.5 -120 | -150 |
Reds vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Friday‘s MLB game with 61.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Noelvi Marte has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+14.80 Units / 296% ROI)
- Connor Joe has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Walks Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+9.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+8.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 20 away games (+8.45 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luis Torrens has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 25 games (+19.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games at home (+14.10 Units / 282% ROI)
- Luis Torrens has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+11.10 Units / 53% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+10.70 Units / 43% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+8.25 Units / 21% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 74 games (+15.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 34 games (+5.60 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.85 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.75 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 21 away games (+3.50 Units / 14% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 47 games at home (+11.95 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 24 games at home (+11.55 Units / 41% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 47 games at home (+10.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+8.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 28 games (+6.90 Units / 22% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 50-46 against the Run Line (-3.68 Units / -2.83% ROI).
- 50-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.4 Units / -1.17% ROI
- 39-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.84 Units / -19.63% ROI
- 55-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.2 Units / 11.36% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 49-48 against the Run Line (+0.54 Units / 0.44% ROI).
- 55-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.8 Units / 0.54% ROI
- 43-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.65 Units / -13.66% ROI
- 52-43 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.55 Units / 4.28% ROI
Mets vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Mets vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Mets vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Mets vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Lodolo (CIN) | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +120 |
| Sean Manaea (NYM) | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .457 (16-for-35) against Nick Lodolo’s low fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .266 — first Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has not walked any of the 122 opponent 7-8-9 hitters that he has faced this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has allowed an OBP of just .107 (28 PA’s) with two-strikes in his last two starts — 7th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .216 — 92nd Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has walked 5% of batters this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 92nd Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brandon Waddell has allowed a slugging percentage of .684 (26 Total Bases / 38 ABs) this month (3 games) — 8th highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: .392 — eighth Percentile.
Brandon Waddell has allowed an OPS of 1.026 (41 PA’s) this month (3 games) — 12th highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: .695 — 11th Percentile.
Brandon Waddell has allowed at least one HR in each of his last three games dating back to July 2nd — Brandon Walter has the longest active streak at 6.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 21% (6/29) against Brandon Waddell with two-strikes this month (3 games) — 10th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 39% — 10th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Reds are just 8-22 (.267) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 9-97 (.085) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .136.
The Reds are just 16-33 (.327) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds were just 5-16 (.238) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Mets are 23-10 (.697) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Mets are 7-2 (.778) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets are 17-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters slugged just .151 on pitches out of the zone in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.
The Reds batted just .116 on pitches out of the zone in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
The Reds are batting just .216 with two outs this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Reds hitters have chased 35% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of just .183 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Mets hitters are slugging .433 against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .760 (2,758 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .724.
The Mets are batting just .128 on pitches out of the zone this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .147.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have walked 14% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Reds pitchers have walked 15% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (3 games) — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 10% of batters this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Batters facing the Mets pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 47% of the time this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mets pitchers have walked 10% of batters since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers walked 586 of 6,098 batters (10%) in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
More MLB Reading:
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