- The Mets are -185 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds vs Mets Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Reds / Mets TV Channel: FDOH | SNY | MLBN
The Cincinnati Reds (+150) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-185) on Saturday, July 19, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens, NY.
This season, the Reds are 51-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 49-49 ATS.
Reds vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Nick Martinez 7-9, 4.85 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Clay Holmes 8-4, 3.32 ERA
Reds vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -145 | O 8.5 +100 | +150 |
| Mets | -1.5 +118 | U 8.5 -120 | -185 |
Reds vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 62.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Noelvi Marte has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+13.80 Units / 230% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Walks Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+9.80 Units / 18% ROI)
- Austin Hays has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+8.70 Units / 35% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+8.10 Units / 25% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 20 away games (+8.00 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luis Torrens has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 25 games (+19.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+13.80 Units / 55% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games at home (+13.10 Units / 218% ROI)
- Luis Torrens has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+8.40 Units / 39% ROI)
- Tyrone Taylor has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 7 games at home (+8.25 Units / 118% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 75 games (+14.15 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 35 games (+6.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 5 away games (+5.05 Units / 83% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.55 Units / 30% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 25 games at home (+12.55 Units / 42% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 48 games at home (+10.40 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 48 games at home (+9.70 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 29 games (+7.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 46 games at home (+6.75 Units / 9% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 51-46 against the Run Line (-2.68 Units / -2.03% ROI).
- 51-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.05 Units / -0.04% ROI
- 40-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.84 Units / -18.5% ROI
- 55-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.1 Units / 10.23% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 49-49 against the Run Line (-0.46 Units / -0.37% ROI).
- 55-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.75 Units / -0.5% ROI
- 44-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.65 Units / -12.6% ROI
- 52-44 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.45 Units / 3.22% ROI
Mets vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -525 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
Mets vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Mets vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
Mets vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Martinez (CIN) | 3.5 -175 | 3.5 +130 |
| Clay Holmes (NYM) | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 +100 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Martinez has thrown 57% of his pitches in the strike zone (175/305) with runners in scoring position this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .323 (10-for-31) against Nick Martinez with two-strikes this month (3 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .152 — first Percentile.
Nick Martinez has struck out just 3% (1/36) of right-handed batters he faced this month (3 games) — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — third Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .424 (14-for-33) against Nick Martinez this month (3 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .229 — second Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 71% (22/31) against Clay Holmes in his last two starts — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 65% (116/178) against Clay Holmes in the 2024 season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 70% (54/77) against Clay Holmes in two-strike counts in the 2024 season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Clay Holmes has walked 10% of batters this season — tied for 8th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 13th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Reds are just 16-33 (.327) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 8-22 (.267) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are 25-5 (.833) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .715.
The Reds were just 5-16 (.238) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Mets are just 0-38 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .044.
The Mets are 17-89 (.160) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .097.
The Mets are 47-13 (.783) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have a swing rate of just 46% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Reds batted just .116 on pitches out of the zone in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
Reds hitters have chased 35% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Reds hitters are slugging just .362 against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .393.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of just .186 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of just .217 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of just .222 with runners on base since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Mets hitters have an OBP of just .192 (182 PA’s) with two-strikes over the last 14 days — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have walked 15% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Batters facing the Reds pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 54% of the time this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 10% of batters this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 10% of batters since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers walked 586 of 6,098 batters (10%) in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 26% against Mets pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
More MLB Reading:
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