- The Reds are -110 favorites vs the Mets
- Reds starting pitcher: Andrew Abbott
- Mets starting pitcher: Tylor Megill
- Watch the game on WPIX
The Cincinnati Reds (-110) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-110) on Saturday, September 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Reds are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Reds vs Mets Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Reds are 77-72 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 63-84 ATS.
Reds vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | -1.5 +150 | O 8.5 -115 | -110 |
| Mets | +1.5 -185 | U 8.5 -105 | -110 |
Reds vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 53.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Reds vs Mets and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 37 games (+13.40 Units / 25% ROI)
- Hunter Renfroe has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 17 away games (+10.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 35 games (+9.40 Units / 17% ROI)
- Nick Senzel has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 24 games (+9.25 Units / 38% ROI)
- Harrison Bader has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+9.10 Units / 59% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 30 of his last 39 games (+14.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 36 games (+13.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 38 games (+12.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 48 games (+11.65 Units / 21% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 21 games at home (+10.65 Units / 34% ROI)
Mets vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Ronny Mauricio | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
Mets vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Ronny Mauricio | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
Mets vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ronny Mauricio | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Mets vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tylor Megill | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -105 |
| Andrew Abbott | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -110 |
Reds Best Bets Today:
- team high – away
Mets Best Bets Today:
- team high – home
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 91-58 against the Run Line (+23.25 Units / 11.69% ROI).
- 77-72 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.45 Units / 8.85% ROI
- 72-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.45 Units / -6.98% ROI
- 76-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.95 Units / -1.8% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 63-84 against the Run Line (-30.55 Units / -16.47% ROI).
- 68-79 when betting on the Moneyline for -30.15 Units / -15.52% ROI
- 59-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -30.55 Units / -18.84% ROI
- 81-59 when betting on the total runs Under for +16.15 Units / 10.01% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 19% (17/89) against Andrew Abbott’s curve and slider this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 26% (35/134) against Andrew Abbott on non-fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 29% (76/263) against Andrew Abbott this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.
Andrew Abbott has allowed an OPS of just .380 (235 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: .526 — 95th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tylor Megill has a strike rate of just 55% (202/370) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Tylor Megill has allowed an OBP of .490 (96 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: .327 — 0 Percentile.
Tylor Megill has walked 16 of 96 batters (17%) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .333 (25-for-75) against Tylor Megill’s elevated fastball this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: .231 — second Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Reds are just 45-35 (.562) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Reds are just 39-43 (.476) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .637.
The Reds are 13-58 (.183) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Reds are 25-48 (.342) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .219.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Mets are just 2-65 (.030) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Mets are just 5-37 (.119) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .269.
The Mets are 147-2 (.987) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Mets are just 6-116 (.049) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .093.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .139 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
The Reds are batting just .319 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .342.
Reds hitters are slugging just .180 on pitches out of the zone this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .212.
Reds hitters are slugging just .187 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .213.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OBP of .329 (8,201 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
The Mets have been successful on 71% of their hit & run attempts since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .746 (8,201 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Mets hitters have just 1,695 strikeouts in 8,201 PA’s (21%) against RHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have walked 391 of 4,197 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 560 of 5,797 batters (10%) this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .294 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Mets pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 30% of their games at home in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mets pitchers have walked 124 of 1,288 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 13 of 106 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (12 games) — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Luis Guillorme (Mets): Leg, D10
- Edwin Díaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Starling Marte (Mets): Migraines, D10
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Finger, D15
- Brett Baty (Mets): Groin, Day-to-Day
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Lat, D15
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Pec, D60
- Joshua Walker (Mets): Oblique, D60
- Alexander Young (Reds): COVID-19, D7
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew McLain (Reds): Oblique, D10
- Douglas Ashcraft (Reds): Toe, D15
- Stuart Fairchild (Reds): COVID-19, D7
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Curtis Casali (Reds): Foot, D10
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Kevin Newman (Reds): Oblique, D10
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
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