- The Mets are -135 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds starting pitcher: Brandon Williamson
- Mets starting pitcher: José Quintana
- Watch the game on WPIX
The Cincinnati Reds (+110) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-135) on Sunday, September 17, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Reds vs Mets Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Reds are 78-72 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 64-84 ATS.
Reds vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -175 | O 9 -110 | +110 |
| Mets | -1.5 +145 | U 9 -110 | -135 |
Reds vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 60.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Reds vs Mets and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 38 games (+12.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- Hunter Renfroe has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 17 away games (+10.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- Nick Senzel has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 24 games (+9.25 Units / 38% ROI)
- Harrison Bader has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+9.10 Units / 59% ROI)
- Hunter Renfroe has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 24 away games (+9.10 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 31 of his last 40 games (+15.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 49 games (+12.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+11.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 37 games (+11.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 39 games (+11.10 Units / 28% ROI)
Mets vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Ronny Mauricio | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Spencer Steer | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Mets vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
| Ronny Mauricio | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Spencer Steer | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Mets vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Ronny Mauricio | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Spencer Steer | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Mets vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Quintana | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +100 |
| Brandon Williamson | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -135 |
Reds Best Bets Today:
- team high – away
Mets Best Bets Today:
- team high – home
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 91-59 against the Run Line (+22.25 Units / 11.13% ROI).
- 78-72 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.45 Units / 9.4% ROI
- 72-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.55 Units / -7.6% ROI
- 77-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.95 Units / -1.18% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 64-84 against the Run Line (-29.55 Units / -15.78% ROI).
- 68-80 when betting on the Moneyline for -31.3 Units / -16.01% ROI
- 59-82 when betting on the total runs Over for -31.65 Units / -19.39% ROI
- 82-59 when betting on the total runs Under for +17.15 Units / 10.55% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 33% (100/303) against Brandon Williamson with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 0 Percentile.
Brandon Williamson has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (153/356) when behind in the count this season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 96th Percentile.
Brandon Williamson has thrown inside pitches 39% of the time (465/1,182) in non-two strike counts this season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 95th Percentile.
Brandon Williamson has induced opposing hitters to ground into 11 double plays in 67 opportunities (16%) this season — tied for 12th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 93rd Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Quintana has not allowed a home run in any of the last 23.1 innings he’s appeared — Tanner Scott has the longest active streak at 62.2.
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 55% (728/1,335) when ahead in the count since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.2 MPH against his fastballs since last season (353 balls in play) — tied for 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: 90.6
Jose Quintana has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 82.1 MPH on inside pitches since last season (189 balls in play) — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: 85.7
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Reds are just 39-43 (.476) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .637.
The Reds are just 15-20 (.429) after a loss as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .583.
The Reds are just 45-35 (.562) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Reds are 25-48 (.342) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .220.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Mets are just 5-37 (.119) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .269.
The Mets are just 2-66 (.029) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Mets are just 6-117 (.049) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .093.
The Mets are just 11-55 (.167) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .220.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .181 on pitches out of the zone this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .212.
The Reds are batting just .319 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .342.
The Reds are batting just .140 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
The Reds batted just .298 on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OBP of .329 (8,217 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
The Mets have been successful on 71% of their hit & run attempts since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .745 (8,217 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .353 (1,419 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .328.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
team pitchers – away
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Mets pitchers since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets pitchers had a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Mets vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Luis Guillorme (Mets): Leg, D10
- Edwin Díaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Starling Marte (Mets): Migraines, D10
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Finger, D15
- Brett Baty (Mets): Groin, Day-to-Day
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Lat, D15
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Pec, D60
- Joshua Walker (Mets): Oblique, D60
- Alexander Young (Reds): COVID-19, D7
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew McLain (Reds): Oblique, D10
- Douglas Ashcraft (Reds): Toe, D15
- Stuart Fairchild (Reds): COVID-19, D7
- Luke Maile (Reds): Hand, Day-to-Day
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Curtis Casali (Reds): Foot, D10
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Kevin Newman (Reds): Oblique, D10
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
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