- The Nationals (42-84) are -135 favorites vs the Reds (49-75)
- Reds starting pitcher: Luis Cessa (3-2), 5.67 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Paolo Espino (0-5), 4.30 ERA
- Watch the game on MASN
The Cincinnati Reds (+110) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-135) on Saturday, August 27, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Nationals are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Reds vs Nationals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Reds are 47-75 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 52-71 ATS.
Reds vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -185 | O 8.5 -115 | +110 |
| Nationals | -1.5 +150 | U 8.5 -105 | -135 |
Reds vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Saturday‘s matchup with 53.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 31 games (+14.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 31 games (+12.50 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 away games (+11.80 Units / 24% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 31 games (+10.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 17 games (+14.25 Units / 42% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+11.65 Units / 64% ROI)
- Riley Adams has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+9.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+8.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+8.50 Units / 22% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 55 of their last 96 games (+14.20 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 35 of their last 65 games (+5.40 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 games (+0.45 Units / 5% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 64 of their last 113 games (+14.00 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 46 games at home (+8.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+6.10 Units / 87% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 games (+1.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 14 games at home (+0.85 Units / 6% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 57-65 against the Run Line (-13.8 Units / -9.2% ROI).
- 47-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.4 Units / -11.82% ROI
- 62-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.25 Units / -1.67% ROI
- 58-62 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.45 Units / -7.78% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 52-71 against the Run Line (-26.9 Units / -17.96% ROI).
- 41-82 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.95 Units / -15.6% ROI
- 61-55 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.7 Units / 0.51% ROI
- 55-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.5 Units / -8.53% ROI
Luis Cessa: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Cessa has thrown low pitches 77% of the time (62/81) during extra innings since the start of last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Cessa has a strikeout rate of just 8% (5 SO in 62 PAs) in PAs ending on inside fastballs since the start of last season — tied for 10th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 16% — 10th Percentile.
Luis Cessa has struck out just 16% (40/249) of right-handed batters he faced since the start of last season — 3rd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — third Percentile.
Luis Cessa has allowed an OPS of .823 (172 PA’s) this season — 14th highest among among 213 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .662 — sixth Percentile.
Paolo Espino: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .205 (9-for-44) against Paolo Espino on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: .333 — 98th Percentile.
Paolo Espino has averaged 71.2 MPH on curveballs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 79.2 — first Percentile.
Paolo Espino has located his pitches away 61% of the time (224/365) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 98th Percentile.
Paolo Espino has an average fastball velocity of just 88.5 MPH this season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — third Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Reds are just 37-7 (.841) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.
The Reds are just 17-60 (.221) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Reds are just 10-34 (.227) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .275.
The Reds are just 11-57 (.162) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .201.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Nationals are just 42-71 (.372) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Nationals are just 14-75 (.157) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Nationals are just 10-44 (.185) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Nationals are just 107-16 (.870) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have 703 strikeouts in 2,926 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Reds hitters have an OBP of just .288 (587 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.
Reds hitters have an OPS of just .634 (2,306 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .697.
Reds hitters are slugging just .371 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .443.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have grounded into 273 double plays in 2,106 opportunities (13%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 30% at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have grounded into 46 double plays in 349 opportunities (13%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 37% since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 66 double plays in 965 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .289 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,076 of 10,982 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .312 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 8.18 (55.0 IP) against division opponents this month (7 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.95.
The Nationals have won just 21% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .300 against Nationals pitchers with runners on base this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 72% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
- Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
- Yadiel Hernandez (Nationals): Left Calf, D10
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Christian Greene (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Reinaldo Almora Jr. (Reds): Shoulder, D10
- Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
- Matthew Reynolds (Reds): Hip, D10
- Timothy James Zeuch (Reds): Back, D15
- Robert Dugger (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D15
- Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D60
- Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Douglas Ashcraft (Reds): Biceps, D15
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Rotator Cuff, D60
- Michael Moustakas (Reds): Calf, Day-to-Day
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
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