Reds vs Nationals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 27

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 27, 2022, 9:31 AM
  • The Nationals (42-84) are -135 favorites vs the Reds (49-75)
  • Reds starting pitcher: Luis Cessa (3-2), 5.67 ERA
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Paolo Espino (0-5), 4.30 ERA
  • Watch the game on MASN

The Cincinnati Reds (+110) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-135) on Saturday, August 27, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.

The Nationals are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).

The Reds vs Nationals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Reds are 47-75 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 52-71 ATS.

Reds vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Reds+1.5 -185O 8.5 -115+110
Nationals -1.5 +150U 8.5 -105-135

Reds vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Saturday‘s matchup with 53.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Nationals vs Reds and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 31 games (+14.40 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Donovan Solano has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 31 games (+12.50 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 away games (+11.80 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Donovan Solano has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 31 games (+10.95 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 17 games (+14.25 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Joey Meneses has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+11.65 Units / 64% ROI)
  • Riley Adams has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+9.55 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Nelson Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+8.65 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Nelson Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+8.50 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 55 of their last 96 games (+14.20 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 35 of their last 65 games (+5.40 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 games (+0.45 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 64 of their last 113 games (+14.00 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 46 games at home (+8.20 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+6.10 Units / 87% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 games (+1.00 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 14 games at home (+0.85 Units / 6% ROI)

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 57-65 against the Run Line (-13.8 Units / -9.2% ROI).

  • 47-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.4 Units / -11.82% ROI
  • 62-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.25 Units / -1.67% ROI
  • 58-62 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.45 Units / -7.78% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 52-71 against the Run Line (-26.9 Units / -17.96% ROI).

  • 41-82 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.95 Units / -15.6% ROI
  • 61-55 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.7 Units / 0.51% ROI
  • 55-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.5 Units / -8.53% ROI

Luis Cessa has thrown low pitches 77% of the time (62/81) during extra innings since the start of last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.

Luis Cessa has a strikeout rate of just 8% (5 SO in 62 PAs) in PAs ending on inside fastballs since the start of last season — tied for 10th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 16% — 10th Percentile.

Luis Cessa has struck out just 16% (40/249) of right-handed batters he faced since the start of last season — 3rd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — third Percentile.

Luis Cessa has allowed an OPS of .823 (172 PA’s) this season — 14th highest among among 213 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .662 — sixth Percentile.

Paolo Espino: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting just .205 (9-for-44) against Paolo Espino on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: .333 — 98th Percentile.

Paolo Espino has averaged 71.2 MPH on curveballs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 79.2 — first Percentile.

Paolo Espino has located his pitches away 61% of the time (224/365) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 98th Percentile.

Paolo Espino has an average fastball velocity of just 88.5 MPH this season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — third Percentile.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Reds are just 37-7 (.841) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.

The Reds are just 17-60 (.221) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.

The Reds are just 10-34 (.227) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .275.

The Reds are just 11-57 (.162) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .201.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Nationals are just 42-71 (.372) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.

The Nationals are just 14-75 (.157) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.

The Nationals are just 10-44 (.185) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.

The Nationals are just 107-16 (.870) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

Reds hitters have 703 strikeouts in 2,926 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Reds hitters have an OBP of just .288 (587 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.

Reds hitters have an OPS of just .634 (2,306 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .697.

Reds hitters are slugging just .371 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .443.

Nationals hitters have grounded into 273 double plays in 2,106 opportunities (13%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 30% at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Nationals hitters have grounded into 46 double plays in 349 opportunities (13%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 37% since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 66 double plays in 965 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .289 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .239.

Reds pitchers have walked 1,076 of 10,982 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .312 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .249.

Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 8.18 (55.0 IP) against division opponents this month (7 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.95.

The Nationals have won just 21% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .300 against Nationals pitchers with runners on base this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .249.

The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 72% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Nationals vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
  • Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
  • William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
  • Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
  • Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
  • Yadiel Hernandez (Nationals): Left Calf, D10
  • Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Christian Greene (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Reinaldo Almora Jr. (Reds): Shoulder, D10
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
  • Matthew Reynolds (Reds): Hip, D10
  • Timothy James Zeuch (Reds): Back, D15
  • Robert Dugger (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D15
  • Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D60
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Douglas Ashcraft (Reds): Biceps, D15
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Votto (Reds): Rotator Cuff, D60
  • Michael Moustakas (Reds): Calf, Day-to-Day
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.