- The Reds are -140 favorites vs the Nationals
- Reds vs Nationals Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Reds / Nationals TV Channel: FDOH | MASN
The Cincinnati Reds (-140) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+115) on Tuesday, July 22, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Reds are 52-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 49-51 ATS.
Reds vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Chase Burns 0-1, 6.07 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Brad Lord 2-5, 3.54 ERA
Reds vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | -1.5 +125 | O 8.5 +100 | -140 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -150 | U 8.5 -120 | +115 |
Reds vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 54.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Noelvi Marte has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+10.80 Units / 120% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+9.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- Austin Hays has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.30 Units / 44% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 20 away games (+8.05 Units / 40% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 20 games (+7.85 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Amed Rosario has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+17.10 Units / 285% ROI)
- James Wood has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+10.05 Units / 31% ROI)
- Daylen Lile has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+9.30 Units / 40% ROI)
- Daylen Lile has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+8.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- Daylen Lile has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.80 Units / 29% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 78 games (+15.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 38 games (+6.20 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 16 away games (+3.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 42% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 25 games (+14.50 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 50 of their last 84 games (+12.19 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 43 of their last 74 games (+8.77 Units / 10% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 53-47 against the Run Line (-1.68 Units / -1.24% ROI).
- 52-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.8 Units / -0.65% ROI
- 41-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.04 Units / -19.03% ROI
- 57-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.05 Units / 10.78% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 49-51 against the Run Line (-12.1 Units / -9.31% ROI).
- 40-60 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.52 Units / -11.73% ROI
- 53-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.8 Units / 5.26% ROI
- 43-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.1 Units / -13.75% ROI
Nationals vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -800 |
| Josh Bell (WAS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Matt McLain (CIN) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Nationals vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Matt McLain (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| TJ Friedl (CIN) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
Nationals vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Josh Bell (WAS) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Matt McLain (CIN) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Nationals vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brad Lord (WAS) | 2.5 -150 | 2.5 +115 |
| Chase Burns (CIN) | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +115 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chase Burns has walked 16% of batters this month (2 games) — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Chase Burns has not allowed a hit to any of the last 27 batters he’s faced after reaching two strikes. — Brooks Kriske has the longest active streak at 34.
Chase Burns has a strikeout rate of 39% (17 SO in 44 PAs) this month (2 games) — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 21% — 98th Percentile.
Chase Burns has allowed a slugging percentage of just .243 (9 Total Bases / 37 ABs) this month (2 games) — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: .417 — 95th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 36% (28/78) against Brad Lord this season — tied for 2nd highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 22% — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitless in 10 AB’s against Brad Lord in his last two appearances — tied for best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .230 — 100th Percentile.
Brad Lord has thrown 58% of his pitches in the strike zone (304/528) vs left-handed batters this season — tied for 7th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 52% — 93rd Percentile.
Brad Lord has not allowed a runner to reach base (10 PA’s) in his last two appearances — tied for best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .306 — 100th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Reds are just 8-22 (.267) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds were just 5-16 (.238) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 16-33 (.327) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 7-102 (.064) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .097.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Nationals are just 19-30 (.380) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .548.
The Nationals are just 14-24 (.359) after a win this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .506.
The Nationals are just 8-24 (.242) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Nationals are just 39-60 (.390) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .223 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Reds hitters have a swing rate of just 45% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Reds batted just .116 on pitches out of the zone in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
Reds hitters have chased 23% of pitches out of the zone over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have put just 32% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 40% at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of just .293 (1,248 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.
The Nationals batted just .226 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have walked 16% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Batters facing the Reds pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 53% of the time this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 33% with two-strikes this month (16 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .290 against Nationals pitchers this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 32% with two-strikes over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
More MLB Reading:
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