- The Reds are -115 favorites vs the Nationals
- Reds starting pitcher: Luke Weaver
- Nationals starting pitcher: Jacob Irvin
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Cincinnati Reds (-115) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-105) on Monday, July 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Reds are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Reds vs Nationals Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
This season, the Reds are 45-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 47-36 ATS.
Reds vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | -1.5 +125 | O 10 +100 | -115 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -155 | U 10 -120 | -105 |
Reds vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 60.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt McLain has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 19 away games (+13.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 37 games (+13.05 Units / 28% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Runs Over in 28 of his last 48 games (+10.65 Units / 21% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 43 games (+10.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 away games (+9.90 Units / 61% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 43 games (+18.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 22 of his last 26 games (+16.55 Units / 40% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 43 games (+16.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+15.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 43 games (+15.15 Units / 27% ROI)
Nationals vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -650 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -500 |
Nationals vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -225 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Nationals vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -135 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
Nationals vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luke Weaver | 3.5 +120 | 3.5 -160 |
| Jake Irvin | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -150 |
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 62 games (+22.25 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 83 games (+18.30 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 38 games (+12.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 77 games (+12.40 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 53 games (+11.55 Units / 19% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 77 games (+10.85 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 34 games (+6.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 72 games (+2.40 Units / 3% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 52-32 against the Run Line (+17.3 Units / 16.21% ROI).
- 45-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.85 Units / 16.14% ROI
- 49-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +11.15 Units / 12.14% ROI
- 35-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -18.8 Units / -20.22% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 47-36 against the Run Line (+6.75 Units / 6.66% ROI).
- 34-49 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.85 Units / 6.98% ROI
- 38-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.1 Units / -6.62% ROI
- 40-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -1 Units / -1.1% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luke Weaver has an ERA of 6.82 (100.1 IP)since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 97 total IP; League Avg: 3.97 — 0 Percentile.
Luke Weaver has allowed a slugging percentage of .605 (92 Total Bases / 152 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: .417 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 30% (100/338) against Luke Weaver since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 97 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (30/90) against Luke Weaver on changeups since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 97 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 15% (53/359) against Jake Irvin this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.
Jake Irvin has allowed a slugging percentage of just .182 (4 Total Bases / 22 ABs) vs left-handed batters — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .407 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 18% (19/103) against Jake Irvin with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 31% — first Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 42% of Jake Irvin’s pitches (359/859) this season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 48% — second Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Reds are just 10-13 (.435) after a loss as favorites since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .590.
The Reds are just 20-46 (.303) after a road loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .454.
The Reds are 27-17 (.614) after a win this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .515.
The Reds are 16-6 (.727) after a road win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .488.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Nationals are just 13-26 (.333) after a home win since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .540.
The Nationals are just 39-82 (.322) at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .529.
The Nationals are just 1-143 (.007) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .047.
The Nationals are just 7-13 (.350) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .559.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have an OBP of .315 (267 PA’s) with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Reds hitters are slugging .683 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .593.
Reds hitters are slugging .377 with two-strikes over the last 30 days (27 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .269.
Reds hitters have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 34% against RHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 32% at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have just 389 strikeouts in 2,054 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have just 197 strikeouts in 1,061 PA’s (19%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have won 50% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .304 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Reds have won 52% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Nationals have won just 18% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thaddeus Ward (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D10
- Carl Edwards Jr. (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Finger, Day-to-Day
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Edward Lively (Reds): Pec, D15
- Christian Greene (Reds): Hip, D15
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Casey Legumina (Reds): Shoulder, D15
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