- The – are favorites vs the –
- Reds starting pitcher: Brett Kennedy
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Cincinnati Reds () visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals () on Tuesday, July 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 11:05am EDT in Washington.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Reds vs Nationals Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Reds are 46-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 48-36 ATS.
Reds vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | O | ||
| Nationals | U |
Reds vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 59.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt McLain has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 38 games (+12.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 44 games (+11.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+10.90 Units / 63% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+10.65 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+10.00 Units / 79% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 44 games (+19.65 Units / 36% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 44 games (+18.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 22 of his last 26 games (+16.55 Units / 40% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 44 games (+14.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 23 games at home (+13.80 Units / 46% ROI)
Nationals vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
Nationals vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Joey Meneses | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
Nationals vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
Nationals vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbin | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -115 |
| Kennedy | 3.5 +130 | 3.5 -175 |
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 63 games (+23.25 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 84 games (+17.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 54 games (+12.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 39 games (+11.70 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 78 games (+11.30 Units / 13% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 47 of their last 78 games (+11.85 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 66 games (+9.70 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games (+7.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 73 games (+3.40 Units / 4% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 52-33 against the Run Line (+16.3 Units / 15.13% ROI).
- 46-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.85 Units / 17.02% ROI
- 49-36 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.05 Units / 10.81% ROI
- 36-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.8 Units / -18.92% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 48-36 against the Run Line (+7.75 Units / 7.53% ROI).
- 34-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.8 Units / 5.65% ROI
- 38-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.2 Units / -7.73% ROI
- 41-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brett Kennedy has limited playing time.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting .313 (105-for-335) against Patrick Corbin this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .302 (120-for-398) against Patrick Corbin this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .242 — first Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has allowed an OBP of .352 (361 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .294 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .408 (29-for-71) against Patrick Corbin on low fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .255 — second Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Reds are 33-1 (.971) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .895.
The Reds are just 20-46 (.303) after a road loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .453.
The Reds are just 30-36 (.455) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .643.
The Reds are 17-6 (.739) after a road win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .488.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Nationals are just 31-58 (.348) after a win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Nationals are just 13-27 (.325) after a home win since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .540.
The Nationals are just 7-13 (.350) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .561.
The Nationals are just 30-135 (.182) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .287.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have an OBP of .336 (2,414 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Reds hitters have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 34% against RHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Reds hitters have a swing rate of just 26% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Reds hitters have a swing rate of just 44% this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 32% at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have just 591 strikeouts in 3,150 PA’s (19%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals hitters have just 594 strikeouts in 3,008 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have walked 929 of 9,566 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Reds pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .304 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Reds pitchers have won 50% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 18% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thaddeus Ward (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D10
- Carl Edwards Jr. (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Finger, Day-to-Day
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Edward Lively (Reds): Pec, D15
- Christian Greene (Reds): Hip, D15
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Casey Legumina (Reds): Shoulder, D15
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