- The Reds are -120 favorites vs the Nationals
- Reds starting pitcher: Douglas Ashcraft
- Nationals starting pitcher: Josiah Gray
- Watch the game on MASN2
The Cincinnati Reds (-120) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+100) on Wednesday, July 5, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Reds are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Reds vs Nationals Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Reds are 47-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 48-37 ATS.
Reds vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | -1.5 +135 | O 9.5 -105 | -120 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -160 | U 9.5 -115 | +100 |
Reds vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 59.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt McLain has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 39 games (+13.10 Units / 27% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 45 games (+13.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+11.65 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Runs Over in 29 of his last 50 games (+10.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 16 away games (+9.80 Units / 53% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 45 games (+20.65 Units / 37% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 45 games (+17.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 22 of his last 26 games (+16.55 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 24 games at home (+14.80 Units / 47% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 45 games (+13.15 Units / 22% ROI)
Nationals vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
Nationals vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Nationals vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
Nationals vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josiah Gray | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -150 |
| Graham Ashcraft | 3.5 -140 | 3.5 +105 |
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 64 games (+24.25 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 53 of their last 85 games (+18.70 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 55 games (+13.55 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 40 games (+12.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 79 games (+12.30 Units / 14% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 47 of their last 79 games (+10.25 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 36 games (+8.60 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 67 games (+8.60 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 74 games (+2.40 Units / 3% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 53-33 against the Run Line (+17.7 Units / 16.28% ROI).
- 47-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.85 Units / 17.88% ROI
- 50-36 when betting on the total runs Over for +11.05 Units / 11.74% ROI
- 36-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -18.8 Units / -19.77% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 48-37 against the Run Line (+6.15 Units / 5.88% ROI).
- 34-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.7 Units / 4.3% ROI
- 39-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.2 Units / -6.57% ROI
- 41-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -1 Units / -1.08% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Graham Ashcraft has thrown fastballs 72% of the time (1,007/1,407) vs left-handed batters since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft has an ERA of 8.22 (73.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 3.97 — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .310 (122-for-393) against Graham Ashcraft since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: .249 — first Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft has thrown fastballs 72% of the time (584/810) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 52% — 99th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Josiah Gray has allowed a .462 SLG vs right-handed batters (tied for eighth worst)– 13th Percentile and just .317 vs left-handed batters this season (tied for fourth best among qualified SPs)– 93rd Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .385 (15-for-39) against Josiah Gray on low fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .257 — fourth Percentile.
Josiah Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of .627 (195 Total Bases / 311 ABs) on fastballs since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: .432 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 37% (47/126) against Josiah Gray on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 93rd Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Reds are 18-6 (.750) after a road win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .489.
The Reds are just 20-46 (.303) after a road loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .454.
The Reds are 17-30 (.362) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .216.
The Reds are 20-8 (.714) after a win as favorites since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .594.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Nationals are just 26-55 (.321) after a home loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Nationals are just 13-27 (.325) after a home win since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .540.
The Nationals are just 87-136 (.390) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Nationals are just 31-58 (.348) after a win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have a swing rate of just 44% this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Reds hitters are slugging .661 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .593.
Reds hitters have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 34% against RHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
The Reds have a winning percentage of 57% on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 197 strikeouts in 1,064 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 32% at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have just 594 strikeouts in 3,011 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Nationals are just 2-8 (.200) against the run line (-49.1% ROI) after a win as favorites since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .447.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have won 52% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Reds pitchers have walked 933 of 9,605 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Reds have won 52% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Nationals have won just 18% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thaddeus Ward (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D10
- Carl Edwards Jr. (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Finger, Day-to-Day
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Edward Lively (Reds): Pec, D15
- Christian Greene (Reds): Hip, D15
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Casey Legumina (Reds): Shoulder, D15
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