- The – are favorites vs the –
- Reds starting pitcher: Brandon Williamson
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore
- Watch the game on MASN2
The Cincinnati Reds () visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals () on Thursday, July 6, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Washington.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Reds vs Nationals Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Reds are 48-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 48-38 ATS.
Reds vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | O | ||
| Nationals | U |
Reds vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 55.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 46 games (+14.10 Units / 15% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 26 games (+12.65 Units / 46% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 40 games (+12.10 Units / 25% ROI)
- Wil Myers has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 away games (+9.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 17 away games (+8.70 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 46 games (+21.75 Units / 38% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 46 games (+19.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 23 of his last 27 games (+17.55 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+15.80 Units / 49% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 32 of his last 46 games (+14.15 Units / 23% ROI)
Nationals vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Nationals vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Joey Meneses | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -210 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
Nationals vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Nationals vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Williamson | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -120 |
| Mackenzie Gore | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -145 |
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 65 games (+25.25 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 54 of their last 86 games (+20.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 56 games (+14.55 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 41 games (+13.80 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 80 games (+13.30 Units / 15% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 37 games (+9.60 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 47 of their last 80 games (+8.65 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 68 games (+7.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 22 games at home (+3.00 Units / 12% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 54-33 against the Run Line (+19.1 Units / 17.4% ROI).
- 48-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +17.85 Units / 18.72% ROI
- 51-36 when betting on the total runs Over for +12.05 Units / 12.64% ROI
- 36-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -19.85 Units / -20.64% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 48-38 against the Run Line (+4.55 Units / 4.29% ROI).
- 34-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.6 Units / 2.99% ROI
- 40-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.2 Units / -5.44% ROI
- 41-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.05 Units / -2.19% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brandon Williamson has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (318/740) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 99th Percentile.
Brandon Williamson has thrown inside pitches 48% of the time (283/594) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 98th Percentile.
Brandon Williamson has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last three games dating back to June 19th — Kolby Allard has the longest active streak at 8.
Brandon Williamson has allowed a slugging percentage of .504 (69 Total Bases / 137 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — tied for 11th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .418 — 10th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .128 (10-for-78) against MacKenzie Gore’s elevated fastball this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .220 — 96th Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has walked 39 of 383 batters (10%) this season — 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 10th Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has allowed a slugging percentage of just .192 (15 Total Bases / 78 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .368 — 100th Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has an average spin rate of 1974.7 RPM on sliders since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 2400.5 — first Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Reds are 19-6 (.760) after a road win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .491.
The Reds are 17-30 (.362) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .215.
The Reds are 17-3 (.850) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .683.
The Reds are 35-1 (.972) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .895.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Nationals are just 31-58 (.348) after a win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Nationals are just 87-136 (.390) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Nationals are just 45-34 (.570) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Nationals are just 8-19 (.296) after a home loss this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 34% against RHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Reds hitters have an OBP of .340 (2,465 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Reds hitters have a swing rate of just 44% this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Reds hitters have an OPS of .776 (908 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .740.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have drawn 135 walks in 2,161 PA’s (6%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Nationals hitters have just 1,230 strikeouts in 6,212 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have 426 extra-base hits out of 1,419 total hits (just 30%) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 32% at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have won 52% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .303 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
The Reds have won 54% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Reds pitchers have walked 937 of 9,644 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thaddeus Ward (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D10
- Carl Edwards Jr. (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Edward Lively (Reds): Pec, D15
- Christian Greene (Reds): Hip, D15
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Casey Legumina (Reds): Shoulder, D15
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