- The Orioles are -135 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds starting pitcher: Brandon Williamson
- Orioles starting pitcher: Cole Irvin
- Watch the game on MASN
The Cincinnati Reds (+115) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-135) on Monday, June 26, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Baltimore.
The Orioles are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Reds vs Orioles Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
This season, the Reds are 41-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 47-29 ATS.
Reds vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -160 | O 10 -105 | +115 |
| Orioles | -1.5 +135 | U 10 -115 | -135 |
Reds vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 60.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt McLain has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 31 games (+14.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 31 games (+12.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Runs Over in 28 of his last 46 games (+12.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 28 games (+12.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 49 games (+9.80 Units / 17% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Austin Hays has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 41 games (+12.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- Adam Frazier has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 38 games (+11.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.05 Units / 51% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+9.80 Units / 89% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.25 Units / 73% ROI)
Orioles vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Spencer Steer | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Orioles vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Spencer Steer | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Orioles vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Spencer Steer | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Orioles vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cole Irvin | 3.5 -175 | 3.5 +135 |
| Brandon Williamson | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 +100 |
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 56 games (+19.25 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 49 of their last 77 games (+19.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 32 games (+13.05 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 47 of their last 78 games (+12.20 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 71 games (+10.60 Units / 14% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 73 games (+18.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 63 games (+17.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games (+5.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 31 games at home (+5.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+5.00 Units / 44% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 49-29 against the Run Line (+18 Units / 18.21% ROI).
- 41-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.85 Units / 13.83% ROI
- 45-33 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.35 Units / 10.97% ROI
- 33-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.45 Units / -19.03% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 47-29 against the Run Line (+16.3 Units / 16.68% ROI).
- 47-29 when betting on the Moneyline for +17.55 Units / 18.2% ROI
- 38-33 when betting on the total runs Over for +2 Units / 2.4% ROI
- 33-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.85 Units / -10.51% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brandon Williamson has thrown inside pitches 45% of the time (266/587) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 30 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 99th Percentile.
Brandon Williamson has allowed at least one HR in each of his last four games dating back to June 2nd — Carlos Carrasco has the longest active streak at 7.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 32% (30/95) against Brandon Williamson this season — 12th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 30 total IP; League Avg: 42% — eighth Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .128 (5 GB hits out of 39 GBs) against Brandon Williamson this season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 30 total IP; League Avg: .245 — 97th Percentile.
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .295 (57-for-193) against Cole Irvin on low non-fastballs since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 95 total IP; League Avg: .198 — 0 Percentile.
Cole Irvin has a strike rate of 71% (744/1,050) with runners in scoring position since the 2021 season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Cole Irvin has a strike rate of 68% (1,667/2,451) against right-handed batters since last season — tied for 14th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 95 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 91st Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 21% (132/620) against Cole Irvin on non-fastballs since last season — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 95 total IP; League Avg: 31% — fifth Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Reds are 15-6 (.714) after a road win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .485.
The Reds are just 29-24 (.547) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .699.
The Reds are just 21-29 (.420) after a home win since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .541.
The Reds are just 5-11 (.312) after a road loss this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .461.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Orioles are 19-4 (.826) after a loss as favorites since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .592.
The Orioles are 95-5 (.950) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .873.
The Orioles are 20-9 (.690) after a loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .483.
The Orioles are 46-22 (.676) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .534.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging 1.020 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .614.
Reds hitters have an OBP of .338 (2,224 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Reds hitters have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 34% against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Reds hitters are slugging .907 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 30 days (27 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .615.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles are batting just .160 with two-strikes since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
The Orioles have a winning percentage of 60% on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Orioles are 52-30 (.627) against the run line (17.2% ROI) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .501.
The Orioles are 69-37 (.645) against the run line (21.2% ROI) after a loss since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .498.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .303 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .251.
Reds pitchers have walked 901 of 9,283 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 35% against Reds pitchers over the last 30 days (27 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Reds have won 50% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Orioles pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .160 against Orioles pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .238.
The Orioles have won 48% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Orioles vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ryan Mountcastle (Orioles): Vertigo, D10
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Austin Voth (Orioles): Elbow, D15
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Mychal Givens (Orioles): Shoulder, D15
- James McCann (Orioles): Ankle, D10
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Derek Law (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Edward Lively (Reds): Pec, D15
- Christian Greene (Reds): Hip, D15
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Casey Legumina (Reds): Shoulder, D15
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