- The Padres are -155 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds starting pitcher: Luke Weaver, 16.87 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Brent Honeywell Jr., 6.23 ERA
- Watch the game on BSSD
The Cincinnati Reds (+130) visit Peoria Sports Complex to take on the San Diego Padres (-155) on Wednesday, March 8, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 3:10pm EST in Peoria.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Reds vs Padres Over/Under is 11.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Reds are 3-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 4-5 ATS.
Reds vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -150 | O 11.5 -110 | +130 |
| Padres | -1.5 +125 | U 11.5 -110 | -155 |
Reds vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s Spring Training matchup with 61.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- No trends found
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Austin Nola has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+4.05 Units / 71% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+3.50 Units / 70% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 12 games (+2.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 12 games (+2.15 Units / 16% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 24 games (+16.41 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 70 games (+13.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 73 of their last 134 games (+12.70 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.30 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 20 of their last 34 games (+6.30 Units / 17% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 45 of their last 79 games at home (+15.05 Units / 17% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games at home (+8.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+6.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 37 games (+5.70 Units / 13% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 3-4 against the Run Line (-0.6 Units / -7.59% ROI).
- 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.25 Units / 3.13% ROI
- 3-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.5 Units / -19.35% ROI
- 4-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.65 Units / 8.5% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 4-5 against the Run Line (-1.25 Units / -11.57% ROI).
- 3-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.6 Units / -33.64% ROI
- 3-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.4 Units / -23.88% ROI
- 5-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.9 Units / 19.49% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luke Weaver has not allowed a home run in any of the last 29.1 innings he’s appeared — Jose Quintana has the longest active streak at 67.1.
Luke Weaver walked 1 of 45 batters (2%) over the last 30 days of the regular season (6 games) — tied for 12th best among among 250 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — 95th Percentile.
Hitters swung at 58% of Luke Weaver’s pitches (93/161) over the last 30 days of the regular season (6 games) — 6th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 48% — 98th Percentile.
Luke Weaver threw at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 79% (22/28) of opposing batters over the last 30 days of the regular season (6 games) — tied for 13th highest among among 250 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 95th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brent Honeywell has limited playing time.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Reds are just 6-78 (.071) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Reds are just 6-176 (.033) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Reds are just 11-76 (.126) when allowing 5 or more runs last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Reds are just 24-83 (.224) when scoring 4 or fewer runs last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Padres are just 3-59 (.048) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Padres are 71-7 (.910) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Padres are 22-2 (.917) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Padres are 32-9 (.780) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds batted just .298 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Reds hitters slugged just .366 against RHP last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .393.
Reds hitters have an OBP of .334 (6,050 PA’s) at home since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Reds hitters had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 36% against RHP in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 59% with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
Padres hitters are slugging just .383 against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Padres batted just .230 at home last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Padres hitters have put 39% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have walked 1,229 of 12,419 batters (10%) since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers walked 612 of 6,220 batters (10%) last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,442 of 14,544 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .299 against Reds pitchers with runners on base last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .193 against Padres pitchers with the shift last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 42% against Padres pitchers last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Padres have won 39% of road games in which their opponents scored first last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Padres vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
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