Reds vs Padres Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, May 1

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM May 01, 2023, 3:30 PM
  • The Padres are -225 favorites vs the Reds
  • Reds starting pitcher: Luke Weaver
  • Padres starting pitcher: Blake Snell
  • Watch the game on BSSD

The Cincinnati Reds (+185) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-225) on Monday, May 1, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.

The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-115).

The Reds vs Padres Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

This season, the Reds are 12-16 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 15-14 ATS.

Reds vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Reds+1.5 -105O 8.5 -110+185
Padres -1.5 -115U 8.5 -110-225

Reds vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.


Bet now on Reds vs Padres and all games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:

  • TJ Friedl has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 21 games (+12.05 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Jonathan India has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 27 games (+11.05 Units / 41% ROI)
  • TJ Friedl has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 21 games (+9.05 Units / 42% ROI)
  • TJ Friedl has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+8.90 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Jonathan India has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+8.85 Units / 80% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 30 games (+13.85 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+11.40 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Juan Soto has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 29 games (+9.85 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Rougned Odor has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Juan Soto has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 29 games (+8.90 Units / 23% ROI)

Padres vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Tyler Stephenson 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Jonathan India 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
Henry Ramos 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
Austin Nola 0.5 +825 0.5 -5000
Spencer Steer 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600

Padres vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Tyler Stephenson 0.5 -165 0.5 +130
Jonathan India 0.5 -145 0.5 +110
Henry Ramos 0.5 -175 0.5 +130
Austin Nola 0.5 -140 0.5 +105
Spencer Steer 0.5 -160 0.5 +125

Padres vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Tyler Stephenson 0.5 +195 0.5 -275
Jonathan India 0.5 +275 0.5 -400
Henry Ramos 0.5 +200 0.5 -275
Austin Nola 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Spencer Steer 0.5 +250 0.5 -350

Padres vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Luke Weaver 4.5 -150 4.5 +115
Blake Snell 6.5 -105 6.5 -125
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 27 games (+6.60 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 away games (+5.00 Units / 61% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.55 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.65 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.85 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.80 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 22 games (+5.20 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.20 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.15 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 13 games at home (+0.05 Units / 0% ROI)

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 17-11 against the Run Line (+5.6 Units / 15.66% ROI).

  • 12-16 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.75 Units / -12.18% ROI
  • 15-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 3.3% ROI
  • 13-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.7 Units / -11.82% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 15-14 against the Run Line (-2.05 Units / -5.33% ROI).

  • 15-14 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.9 Units / -9.56% ROI
  • 12-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.75 Units / -14.64% ROI
  • 15-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.95 Units / 6.2% ROI

Luke Weaver has an ERA of 6.85 (32.0 IP)since last season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 3.51 — first Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 32% (48/150) against Luke Weaver since last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .391 (27-for-69) against Luke Weaver with runners in scoring position since last season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .243 — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .318 (64-for-201) against Luke Weaver since last season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .228 — first Percentile.

Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Blake Snell has a strike rate of just 43% (36/83) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 0 Percentile.

Blake Snell has thrown his breaking pitches for a strike just 45% (66/148) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 30% (25/83) against Blake Snell when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 0 Percentile.

Blake Snell has a strike rate of just 54% (191/352) in non-two strike counts this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Reds are 2-14 (.125) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .044.

The Reds are just 20-22 (.476) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Reds are just 61-6 (.910) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.

The Reds are 4-12 (.250) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .099.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Padres are 21-31 (.404) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .272.

The Padres are just 0-12 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .044.

The Padres are 37-15 (.712) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .653.

The Padres are just 3-6 (.333) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.

Reds hitters have 16 extra-base hits out of 63 total hits (just 25%) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

The Reds have a winning percentage of just 10% on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The Reds are batting just .307 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .338.

The Reds have a winning percentage of just 33% on the road since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

The Padres are batting just .209 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.

The Padres are batting just .210 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .261.

Padres hitters are slugging just .350 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .438.

Padres hitters are averaging 4.10 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.92.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .348 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .313 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .250.

Reds pitchers have walked 713 of 7,308 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .382 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .263.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Padres pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Padres pitchers are throwing 4.09 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.92.

Padres pitchers have won 37% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Padres pitchers have walked 28 of 257 batters (11%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Padres vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D15
  • José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
  • Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Adam Engel (Padres): Hamstring, D10
  • David Dahl (Padres): Quad, D10
  • Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
  • Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
  • Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D10
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Fernando Cruz (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D15
  • William Myers (Reds): Undisclosed, D10
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Votto (Reds): Bicep/Shoulder, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.