- The Padres are -225 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds starting pitcher: Luke Weaver
- Padres starting pitcher: Blake Snell
- Watch the game on BSSD
The Cincinnati Reds (+185) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-225) on Monday, May 1, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-115).
The Reds vs Padres Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Reds are 12-16 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 15-14 ATS.
Reds vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -105 | O 8.5 -110 | +185 |
| Padres | -1.5 -115 | U 8.5 -110 | -225 |
Reds vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- TJ Friedl has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 21 games (+12.05 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 27 games (+11.05 Units / 41% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 21 games (+9.05 Units / 42% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+8.90 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+8.85 Units / 80% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 30 games (+13.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+11.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 29 games (+9.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- Rougned Odor has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 29 games (+8.90 Units / 23% ROI)
Padres vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Henry Ramos | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Spencer Steer | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Padres vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Henry Ramos | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Spencer Steer | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
Padres vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -400 |
| Henry Ramos | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Spencer Steer | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
Padres vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luke Weaver | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
| Blake Snell | 6.5 -105 | 6.5 -125 |
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 27 games (+6.60 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 away games (+5.00 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.55 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.65 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.85 Units / 37% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.80 Units / 40% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 22 games (+5.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 13 games at home (+0.05 Units / 0% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 17-11 against the Run Line (+5.6 Units / 15.66% ROI).
- 12-16 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.75 Units / -12.18% ROI
- 15-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 3.3% ROI
- 13-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.7 Units / -11.82% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 15-14 against the Run Line (-2.05 Units / -5.33% ROI).
- 15-14 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.9 Units / -9.56% ROI
- 12-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.75 Units / -14.64% ROI
- 15-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.95 Units / 6.2% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luke Weaver has an ERA of 6.85 (32.0 IP)since last season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 3.51 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 32% (48/150) against Luke Weaver since last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .391 (27-for-69) against Luke Weaver with runners in scoring position since last season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .243 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .318 (64-for-201) against Luke Weaver since last season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .228 — first Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Blake Snell has a strike rate of just 43% (36/83) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 0 Percentile.
Blake Snell has thrown his breaking pitches for a strike just 45% (66/148) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 30% (25/83) against Blake Snell when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 0 Percentile.
Blake Snell has a strike rate of just 54% (191/352) in non-two strike counts this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Reds are 2-14 (.125) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .044.
The Reds are just 20-22 (.476) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Reds are just 61-6 (.910) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Reds are 4-12 (.250) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .099.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Padres are 21-31 (.404) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Padres are just 0-12 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .044.
The Padres are 37-15 (.712) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .653.
The Padres are just 3-6 (.333) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have 16 extra-base hits out of 63 total hits (just 25%) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Reds have a winning percentage of just 10% on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Reds are batting just .307 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .338.
The Reds have a winning percentage of just 33% on the road since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting just .209 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
The Padres are batting just .210 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Padres hitters are slugging just .350 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .438.
Padres hitters are averaging 4.10 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.92.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .348 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .313 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Reds pitchers have walked 713 of 7,308 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .382 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Padres pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers are throwing 4.09 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.92.
Padres pitchers have won 37% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Padres pitchers have walked 28 of 257 batters (11%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D15
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Adam Engel (Padres): Hamstring, D10
- David Dahl (Padres): Quad, D10
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D10
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Fernando Cruz (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D15
- William Myers (Reds): Undisclosed, D10
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Bicep/Shoulder, D10
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