- The Padres are -200 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds starting pitcher: Douglas Ashcraft
- Padres starting pitcher: Michael Wacha
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Cincinnati Reds (+165) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-200) on Tuesday, May 2, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Reds vs Padres Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Reds are 12-17 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 16-14 ATS.
Reds vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -120 | O 8.5 -115 | +165 |
| Padres | -1.5 +100 | U 8.5 -105 | -200 |
Reds vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Reds vs Padres and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- TJ Friedl has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 21 games (+12.05 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 28 games (+10.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- Nick Senzel has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+9.70 Units / 65% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 21 games (+9.05 Units / 42% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+8.90 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 31 games (+14.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+10.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+9.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- Rougned Odor has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 30 games (+8.85 Units / 28% ROI)
Padres vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Henry Ramos | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
Padres vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Henry Ramos | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +100 |
Padres vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Henry Ramos | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
Padres vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Wacha | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +105 |
| Graham Ashcraft | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -140 |
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 away games (+6.00 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 28 games (+5.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 22 games (+3.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.65 Units / 32% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.80 Units / 34% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 23 games (+4.15 Units / 17% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 14 games at home (+1.05 Units / 6% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 17-12 against the Run Line (+4.5 Units / 12.21% ROI).
- 12-17 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.75 Units / -14.94% ROI
- 16-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +2 Units / 6.36% ROI
- 13-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.75 Units / -14.68% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 16-14 against the Run Line (-1.05 Units / -2.65% ROI).
- 16-14 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.9 Units / -6.76% ROI
- 13-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.75 Units / -11.16% ROI
- 15-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.9 Units / 2.77% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Graham Ashcraft allowed a batting average of .327 vs right-handed batters (tied for sixth worst)– eighth Percentile and just .071 vs left-handed batters over the last 30 days (best among qualified SPs)– 100th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .071 (4-for-56) against Graham Ashcraft this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — 100th Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft has allowed an OBP of just .188 (64 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .310 — 98th Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft has allowed an OPS of just .348 (64 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .704 — 98th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 50% of the time (71/143) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total CH; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 18% (126/699) against Michael Wacha since last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 26% — third Percentile.
Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 48% of the time (358/741) with two-strikes since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total CH; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Michael Wacha has allowed a slugging percentage of .909 (20 Total Bases / 22 ABs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: .435 — third Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Reds are just 20-22 (.476) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Reds are just 61-6 (.910) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Reds are just 26-98 (.210) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.
The Reds are just 18-28 (.391) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .654.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Padres are 27-3 (.900) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
The Padres are 22-25 (.468) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .346.
The Padres are just 4-70 (.054) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .087.
The Padres are just 0-12 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .046.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds have a winning percentage of just 10% on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Reds hitters have 17 extra-base hits out of 65 total hits (just 26%) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Reds hitters are slugging just .192 with two-strikes this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
The Reds are batting just .307 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .338.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters are slugging just .352 on the road this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .324 (3,790 PA’s) on the road since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .308.
The Padres are batting just .209 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Padres hitters have 188 strikeouts in 728 PA’s (26%) against RHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .351 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .314 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Reds pitchers have walked 717 of 7,350 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .385 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have walked 28 of 266 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Padres pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers are throwing 4.09 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.92.
Padres pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 60% of opposing batters this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Padres vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D15
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Adam Engel (Padres): Hamstring, D10
- David Dahl (Padres): Quad, D10
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D10
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Fernando Cruz (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D15
- William Myers (Reds): Undisclosed, D10
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Bicep/Shoulder, D10
Bet now on Reds vs Padres and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
