- The Phillies (69-55) are -350 favorites vs the Reds (48-74)
- Reds starting pitcher: Justin Dunn (1-1), 6.07 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola (8-10), 3.25 ERA
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Cincinnati Reds (+260) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-350) on Thursday, August 25, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (-105).
The Reds vs Phillies Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Reds are 46-74 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 63-59 ATS.
Reds vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +2.5 -115 | O 8.5 -115 | +260 |
| Phillies | -2.5 -105 | U 8.5 -105 | -350 |
Reds vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s matchup with 68.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 29 games (+12.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 22 away games (+10.80 Units / 23% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 29 games (+10.65 Units / 32% ROI)
- Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 29 games (+10.50 Units / 27% ROI)
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 48 games (+17.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 21 games at home (+16.95 Units / 36% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 37 of his last 48 games at home (+16.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 42 games (+13.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 29 games at home (+12.85 Units / 25% ROI)
Phillies vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bradley Zimmer | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Garrett Stubbs | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jean Segura | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Phillies vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bradley Zimmer | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| Garrett Stubbs | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
| Jean Segura | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Matt Vierling | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
Phillies vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bradley Zimmer | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -190 |
| Garrett Stubbs | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jean Segura | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -125 |
Phillies vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | 7.5 -110 | 7.5 -130 |
| Justin Dunn | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -165 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 54 of their last 94 games (+14.20 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 34 of their last 63 games (+5.40 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+0.25 Units / 4% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 68 of their last 119 games (+14.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+4.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+3.10 Units / 12% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 56-64 against the Run Line (-13.8 Units / -9.36% ROI).
- 46-74 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.75 Units / -12.28% ROI
- 61-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.25 Units / -1.7% ROI
- 57-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.25 Units / -7.77% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 63-59 against the Run Line (+2.95 Units / 2% ROI).
- 68-54 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.75 Units / 3.36% ROI
- 60-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.25 Units / -0.93% ROI
- 56-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.75 Units / -7.25% ROI
Justin Dunn: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Dunn had a strike rate of just 51% (44/87) — lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.
Justin Dunn has allowed an OPS of 1.067 (61 PA’s) this month (3 games) — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: .698 — third Percentile.
Justin Dunn has allowed at least one HR in each of his last three games dating back to August 8th — Josiah Gray has the longest active streak at 10.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 56% (14/25) against Justin Dunn — 7th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 38% — fourth Percentile.
Aaron Nola: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .159 (10-for-63) against Aaron Nola on low fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .263 — 97th Percentile.
Aaron Nola’s K:BB ratio is 7.9 (174/22) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.5 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .253 (20-for-79) against Aaron Nola on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .330 — 96th Percentile.
Aaron Nola’s K:BB ratio is 12.6 (88/7) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.8 — 100th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Reds are just 36-7 (.837) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.
The Reds are just 46-58 (.442) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Reds are just 3-60 (.048) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .113.
The Reds are just 10-34 (.227) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Phillies are 11-41 (.212) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .084.
The Phillies are 13-41 (.241) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .113.
The Phillies are just 4-12 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 54-2 (.964) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .916.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .224 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Reds hitters have an OBP of just .287 (573 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.
Reds hitters are slugging just .342 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .389.
Reds hitters are slugging just .498 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .553.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .310 against LHP this month (16 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .776 (1,365 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .882 (224 PA’s) against LHP this month (16 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .694.
Phillies hitters are slugging .525 at home this month (14 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 65 double plays in 953 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .308 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,072 of 10,914 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies have won 41% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.6 MPH (2,998 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% against Phillies pitchers over the last 14 days (14 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D60
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Brandon Marsh (Phillies): Ankle, D10
- Seranthony Domínguez (Phillies): Triceps, D15
- Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D60
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Christian Greene (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Reinaldo Almora Jr. (Reds): Shoulder, D10
- Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
- Matthew Reynolds (Reds): Hip, D10
- Robert Dugger (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D15
- Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D60
- Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Douglas Ashcraft (Reds): Biceps, D15
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Rotator Cuff, D60
- Michael Moustakas (Reds): Calf, Day-to-Day
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
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