Reds vs Phillies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 25

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 25, 2022, 6:21 PM
  • The Phillies (69-55) are -350 favorites vs the Reds (48-74)
  • Reds starting pitcher: Justin Dunn (1-1), 6.07 ERA
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola (8-10), 3.25 ERA
  • Watch the game on NBCS-PH

The Cincinnati Reds (+260) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-350) on Thursday, August 25, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (-105).

The Reds vs Phillies Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Reds are 46-74 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 63-59 ATS.

Reds vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Reds+2.5 -115O 8.5 -115+260
Phillies -2.5 -105U 8.5 -105-350

Reds vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s matchup with 68.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Phillies vs Reds and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 29 games (+12.40 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 22 away games (+10.80 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Donovan Solano has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 29 games (+10.65 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Donovan Solano has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 29 games (+10.50 Units / 27% ROI)

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 48 games (+17.70 Units / 21% ROI)
  • J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 21 games at home (+16.95 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 37 of his last 48 games at home (+16.65 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 42 games (+13.50 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 29 games at home (+12.85 Units / 25% ROI)

Phillies vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bradley Zimmer 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
Bryson Stott 0.5 +333 0.5 -600
Garrett Stubbs 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Jean Segura 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Kyle Schwarber 0.5 +200 0.5 -275

Phillies vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bradley Zimmer 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Garrett Stubbs 0.5 -165 0.5 +120
Jean Segura 0.5 -275 0.5 +190
Kyle Schwarber 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Matt Vierling 0.5 -200 0.5 +145

Phillies vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bradley Zimmer 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Bryson Stott 0.5 +130 0.5 -190
Garrett Stubbs 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Jean Segura 0.5 +140 0.5 -200
Kyle Schwarber 0.5 -115 0.5 -125

Phillies vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Nola 7.5 -110 7.5 -130
Justin Dunn 4.5 +120 4.5 -165
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 54 of their last 94 games (+14.20 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 34 of their last 63 games (+5.40 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+0.25 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 68 of their last 119 games (+14.15 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+4.60 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+3.10 Units / 12% ROI)

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 56-64 against the Run Line (-13.8 Units / -9.36% ROI).

  • 46-74 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.75 Units / -12.28% ROI
  • 61-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.25 Units / -1.7% ROI
  • 57-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.25 Units / -7.77% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 63-59 against the Run Line (+2.95 Units / 2% ROI).

  • 68-54 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.75 Units / 3.36% ROI
  • 60-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.25 Units / -0.93% ROI
  • 56-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.75 Units / -7.25% ROI

Justin Dunn had a strike rate of just 51% (44/87) — lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.

Justin Dunn has allowed an OPS of 1.067 (61 PA’s) this month (3 games) — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: .698 — third Percentile.

Justin Dunn has allowed at least one HR in each of his last three games dating back to August 8th — Josiah Gray has the longest active streak at 10.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 56% (14/25) against Justin Dunn — 7th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 38% — fourth Percentile.

Aaron Nola: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting just .159 (10-for-63) against Aaron Nola on low fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .263 — 97th Percentile.

Aaron Nola’s K:BB ratio is 7.9 (174/22) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.5 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .253 (20-for-79) against Aaron Nola on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .330 — 96th Percentile.

Aaron Nola’s K:BB ratio is 12.6 (88/7) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.8 — 100th Percentile.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Reds are just 36-7 (.837) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.

The Reds are just 46-58 (.442) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.

The Reds are just 3-60 (.048) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .113.

The Reds are just 10-34 (.227) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Phillies are 11-41 (.212) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .084.

The Phillies are 13-41 (.241) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .113.

The Phillies are just 4-12 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 54-2 (.964) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .916.

The Reds are batting just .224 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.

Reds hitters have an OBP of just .287 (573 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.

Reds hitters are slugging just .342 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .389.

Reds hitters are slugging just .498 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .553.

The Phillies are batting .310 against LHP this month (16 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .776 (1,365 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .712.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .882 (224 PA’s) against LHP this month (16 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .694.

Phillies hitters are slugging .525 at home this month (14 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .400.

Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 65 double plays in 953 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .308 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .248.

Reds pitchers have walked 1,072 of 10,914 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Phillies have won 41% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.6 MPH (2,998 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% against Phillies pitchers over the last 14 days (14 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Phillies vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Brandon Marsh (Phillies): Ankle, D10
  • Seranthony Domínguez (Phillies): Triceps, D15
  • Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D60
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Christian Greene (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Reinaldo Almora Jr. (Reds): Shoulder, D10
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
  • Matthew Reynolds (Reds): Hip, D10
  • Robert Dugger (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D15
  • Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D60
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Douglas Ashcraft (Reds): Biceps, D15
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Votto (Reds): Rotator Cuff, D60
  • Michael Moustakas (Reds): Calf, Day-to-Day
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.