- The Phillies are -160 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds vs Phillies Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Reds / Phillies TV Channel: FDOH | NSPA
The Cincinnati Reds (+130) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-155) on Friday, July 4, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA, PA.
This season, the Reds are 45-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 44-42 ATS.
Reds vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Andrew Abbott 7-1, 1.79 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Jesus Luzardo 7-4, 4.09 ERA
Reds vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -170 | O 8 -102 | +130 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +140 | U 8 -118 | -155 |
Reds vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s MLB game with 58.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 away games (+24.20 Units / 242% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+9.55 Units / 36% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+8.90 Units / 70% ROI)
- Andrew Abbott has hit the Earned Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 20 away games (+7.70 Units / 32% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games at home (+12.30 Units / 176% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+10.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+9.15 Units / 35% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 10 games at home (+8.65 Units / 87% ROI)
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.65 Units / 24% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 64 games (+10.40 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 24 games (+7.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 42 of their last 77 games (+3.40 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 84 games (+3.17 Units / 3% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 39 of their last 69 games (+15.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 83 games (+12.18 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 64 games (+10.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 38 games (+10.06 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 61 games (+8.75 Units / 9% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 46-40 against the Run Line (-1.18 Units / -1% ROI).
- 45-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.35 Units / 0.34% ROI
- 37-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.09 Units / -15.88% ROI
- 48-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.35 Units / 7.62% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 44-42 against the Run Line (-1.3 Units / -1.2% ROI).
- 51-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.75 Units / 3.51% ROI
- 36-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.45 Units / -17.23% ROI
- 48-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.5 Units / 8.85% ROI
Phillies vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Phillies vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Phillies vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
Phillies vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Abbott (CIN) | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +115 |
| Jesus Luzardo (PHI) | 6.5 -130 | 6.5 +100 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .144 (19-for-132) against Andrew Abbott on the road this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .250 — 100th Percentile.
Andrew Abbott has allowed a SLG of just .184 on non-fastballs down this season — 12th best among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP– 91st Percentile. He allowed a SLG of .444 on low non-fastballs last season — tied for sixth worst among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP– fifth Percentile.
Andrew Abbott has allowed a slugging percentage of just .220 (29 Total Bases / 132 ABs) on the road this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .412 — 100th Percentile.
Andrew Abbott has allowed a slugging percentage of just .130 (7 Total Bases / 54 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .367 — 97th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .457 (16-for-35) against Jesus Luzardo’s low fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .266 — first Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed a BABIP of .370 this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .281 — first Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of .686 (24 Total Bases / 35 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .398 — third Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 30% (232/767) against Jesus Luzardo this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 90th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Reds are just 8-20 (.286) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 42-4 (.913) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .956.
The Reds are just 6-97 (.058) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .097.
The Reds were just 5-16 (.238) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Phillies are 9-24 (.273) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .127.
The Phillies are just 11-23 (.324) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Phillies are 127-28 (.819) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
The Phillies are 51-36 (.586) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .126 on pitches out of the zone since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .149.
Reds hitters have struck out in 24% of their PA’s against RHP since last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Reds hitters slugged just .151 on pitches out of the zone in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.
Reds hitters are slugging just .170 on pitches out of the zone since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .203.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .413 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .332 (2,336 PA’s) against RHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
The Phillies have scored first in 63% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .287 (408 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Reds pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 54% of the time this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 4% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Reds pitchers this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 37% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
More MLB Reading:
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