- The Phillies are -175 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds vs Phillies Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Reds / Phillies TV Channel: FDOH | NSPA
The Cincinnati Reds (+145) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-175) on Saturday, July 5, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA, PA.
This season, the Reds are 46-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 44-43 ATS.
Reds vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Nick Lodolo 5-5, 3.56 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suarez 7-2, 2.00 ERA
Reds vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -145 | O 8.5 +100 | +145 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +120 | U 8.5 -120 | -175 |
Reds vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 60.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nick Lodolo has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+5.95 Units / 49% ROI)
- Nick Lodolo has hit the Strikeouts Over in his last 5 away games (+5.30 Units / 91% ROI)
- Nick Lodolo has hit the Earned Runs Under in 6 of his last 8 away games (+4.45 Units / 48% ROI)
- Nick Lodolo has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 6 of his last 8 away games (+2.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- Nick Lodolo has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+2.70 Units / 32% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ranger Suarez has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.30 Units / 74% ROI)
- Ranger Suarez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.40 Units / 42% ROI)
- Ranger Suarez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+7.00 Units / 66% ROI)
- Ranger Suarez has hit the Hits Allowed Under in his last 5 games (+5.20 Units / 102% ROI)
- Ranger Suarez has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+2.50 Units / 10% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
Phillies Best Bets Today:
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 47-40 against the Run Line (-1.18 Units / -1% ROI).
- 46-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.35 Units / 0.34% ROI
- 38-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.09 Units / -15.88% ROI
- 48-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.35 Units / 7.62% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 44-43 against the Run Line (-1.3 Units / -1.2% ROI).
- 51-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.75 Units / 3.51% ROI
- 37-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.45 Units / -17.23% ROI
- 48-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.5 Units / 8.85% ROI
Phillies vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -325 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -625 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
Phillies vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Matt McLain (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
Phillies vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Phillies vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ranger Suarez (PHI) | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +115 |
| Nick Lodolo (CIN) | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Lodolo has thrown his curveball 28% of the time (422/1,536) this season — 2nd highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 15% — 96th Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has walked 5% of batters this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 90th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .438 (14-for-32) against Nick Lodolo’s low fastballs this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .279 — third Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has thrown his curveball 27% of the time (106/398) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 17% — 96th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ranger Suarez has pitched 7 or more innings in each of his last five games — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 32% (48/151) against Ranger Suarez on pitches in the strike zone this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 17% (33/197) against Ranger Suarez this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 20% (18/90) against Ranger Suarez’s non-fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 37% — 100th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Reds are just 8-20 (.286) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds were just 5-16 (.238) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 2-32 (.059) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .127.
The Reds are just 8-93 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .138.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Phillies are just 11-23 (.324) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Phillies are 9-25 (.265) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .127.
The Phillies are 23-3 (.885) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
The Phillies are 44-1 (.978) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .908.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .125 on pitches out of the zone since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .149.
Reds hitters have chased 35% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Reds are batting just .219 with two outs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Reds hitters have a swing rate of just 46% this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .411 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .287 (409 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .352 (1,657 PA’s) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .322.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .339 (4,681 PA’s) at home since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Reds pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Batters facing the Reds pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 54% of the time this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
The Phillies have allowed 3.45 runs per game (152/44) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Phillies pitchers have an ERA of 3.37 (385.0 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.25.
More MLB Reading:
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