Reds vs Pirates Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Apr 22

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 22, 2023, 3:33 PM
  • The Pirates are -160 favorites vs the Reds
  • Reds starting pitcher: Luis Cessa
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Richard Hill
  • Watch the game on SportsNet PT

The Cincinnati Reds (+135) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-160) on Saturday, April 22, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.

The Pirates are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).

The Reds vs Pirates Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

This season, the Reds are 7-13 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 13-8 ATS.

Reds vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Reds+1.5 -145O 9 +100+135
Pirates -1.5 +120U 9 -120-160

Reds vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.


Bet now on Reds vs Pirates and all games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:

  • TJ Friedl has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.05 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Jonathan India has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+10.85 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Jake Fraley has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 8 games (+8.70 Units / 79% ROI)
  • TJ Friedl has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Jonathan India has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.50 Units / 33% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+9.05 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+8.35 Units / 86% ROI)
  • Connor Joe has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+8.10 Units / 99% ROI)
  • Carlos Santana has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+7.95 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Carlos Santana has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.95 Units / 34% ROI)

Pirates vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Tyler Stephenson 0.5 +625 0.5 -2000
Jonathan India 0.5 +625 0.5 -2000
Curt Casali 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
Austin Hedges 0.5 +1050 0.5
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +360 0.5 -650

Pirates vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Tyler Stephenson 0.5 -225 0.5 +165
Jonathan India 0.5 -210 0.5 +155
Curt Casali 0.5 -105 0.5 -125
Austin Hedges 0.5 -125 0.5 -105
Bryan Reynolds 1.5 +165 1.5 -225

Pirates vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Tyler Stephenson 0.5 +175 0.5 -225
Jonathan India 0.5 +240 0.5 -350
Curt Casali 0.5 +250 0.5 -350
Austin Hedges 0.5 +240 0.5 -350
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +145 0.5 -190

Pirates vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Rich Hill 4.5 -125 4.5 -105
Luis Cessa 2.5 -130 2.5 +100
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.75 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 19 games (+5.45 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.05 Units / 57% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 19 games (+3.00 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games (+11.55 Units / 58% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 18 games (+10.05 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 games (+7.95 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+5.75 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.55 Units / 61% ROI)

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 12-8 against the Run Line (+4.45 Units / 18.28% ROI).

  • 7-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.25 Units / -24.59% ROI
  • 11-9 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.35 Units / 6.24% ROI
  • 9-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.2 Units / -14.32% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 13-8 against the Run Line (+3.25 Units / 11.44% ROI).

  • 14-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.75 Units / 46.84% ROI
  • 9-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.8 Units / -12.2% ROI
  • 11-9 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.35 Units / 5.81% ROI

Luis Cessa has a strikeout rate of just 4% (3 SO in 70 PAs) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .417 (25-for-60) against Luis Cessa this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: .251 — 0 Percentile.

Luis Cessa has an ERA of 13.50 (12.0 IP)this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 4.42 — 0 Percentile.

Luis Cessa has allowed an OBP of .486 (70 PA’s) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: .321 — 0 Percentile.

Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

4 of Rich Hill’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — tied for 3rd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 96th Percentile.

Rich Hill has an average fastball velocity of just 86.7 MPH this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 93.5 — first Percentile.

Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 65% of the time (68/105) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

23 of Rich Hill’s 76 breaking pitch strikeouts (30%) have been backdoor since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 98th Percentile.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Reds are just 1-7 (.125) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .523.

The Reds are just 20-22 (.476) when hitting 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .712.

The Reds are just 17-28 (.378) when scoring in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .652.

The Reds are just 1-11 (.083) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Pirates are just 96-26 (.787) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Pirates are just 0-6 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .037.

The Pirates are 12-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .907.

The Pirates are just 39-50 (.438) at home since the 2022 season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .527.

Reds hitters are slugging just .179 with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .258.

The Reds are batting just .304 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .337.

Reds hitters have an OPS of just .390 (428 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .506.

Reds hitters are slugging just .365 against RHP since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .394.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .169 on pitches out of the zone since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

The Pirates are batting just .147 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .289 (2,082 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .173 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .364 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Reds pitchers have walked 690 of 7,011 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .312 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .249.

Reds pitchers have walked 1,457 of 14,699 batters (10%) since the 2020 season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 303 of 3,367 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2020 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 1,458 of 14,746 batters (10%) since the 2020 season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 22% in close and late situations since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 664 of 7,044 batters (9%) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Chase De Jong (Pirates): Knee, D15
  • Robert Zastryzny (Pirates): Elbow, D15
  • Jarlín García (Pirates): Arm, D60
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D10
  • Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
  • Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D15
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D15
  • Christian Greene (Reds): Shin, Day-to-Day
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Votto (Reds): Bicep/Shoulder, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.