- The Pirates are -160 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds starting pitcher: Luis Cessa
- Pirates starting pitcher: Richard Hill
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Cincinnati Reds (+135) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-160) on Saturday, April 22, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Pirates are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Reds vs Pirates Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Reds are 7-13 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 13-8 ATS.
Reds vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -145 | O 9 +100 | +135 |
| Pirates | -1.5 +120 | U 9 -120 | -160 |
Reds vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- TJ Friedl has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+10.85 Units / 54% ROI)
- Jake Fraley has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 8 games (+8.70 Units / 79% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.50 Units / 33% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+9.05 Units / 49% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+8.35 Units / 86% ROI)
- Connor Joe has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+8.10 Units / 99% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+7.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.95 Units / 34% ROI)
Pirates vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Curt Casali | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
Pirates vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Curt Casali | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -125 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -225 |
Pirates vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Curt Casali | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Pirates vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rich Hill | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
| Luis Cessa | 2.5 -130 | 2.5 +100 |
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 19 games (+5.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.05 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 19 games (+3.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 50% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games (+11.55 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 18 games (+10.05 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 games (+7.95 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+5.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.55 Units / 61% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 12-8 against the Run Line (+4.45 Units / 18.28% ROI).
- 7-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.25 Units / -24.59% ROI
- 11-9 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.35 Units / 6.24% ROI
- 9-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.2 Units / -14.32% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 13-8 against the Run Line (+3.25 Units / 11.44% ROI).
- 14-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.75 Units / 46.84% ROI
- 9-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.8 Units / -12.2% ROI
- 11-9 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.35 Units / 5.81% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Cessa has a strikeout rate of just 4% (3 SO in 70 PAs) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .417 (25-for-60) against Luis Cessa this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: .251 — 0 Percentile.
Luis Cessa has an ERA of 13.50 (12.0 IP)this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 4.42 — 0 Percentile.
Luis Cessa has allowed an OBP of .486 (70 PA’s) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: .321 — 0 Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
4 of Rich Hill’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — tied for 3rd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 96th Percentile.
Rich Hill has an average fastball velocity of just 86.7 MPH this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 93.5 — first Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 65% of the time (68/105) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
23 of Rich Hill’s 76 breaking pitch strikeouts (30%) have been backdoor since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 98th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Reds are just 1-7 (.125) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .523.
The Reds are just 20-22 (.476) when hitting 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .712.
The Reds are just 17-28 (.378) when scoring in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .652.
The Reds are just 1-11 (.083) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Pirates are just 96-26 (.787) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 0-6 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .037.
The Pirates are 12-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .907.
The Pirates are just 39-50 (.438) at home since the 2022 season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .527.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .179 with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .258.
The Reds are batting just .304 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .337.
Reds hitters have an OPS of just .390 (428 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .506.
Reds hitters are slugging just .365 against RHP since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .394.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .169 on pitches out of the zone since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Pirates are batting just .147 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .289 (2,082 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .173 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .364 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Reds pitchers have walked 690 of 7,011 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .312 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,457 of 14,699 batters (10%) since the 2020 season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 303 of 3,367 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2020 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,458 of 14,746 batters (10%) since the 2020 season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 22% in close and late situations since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 664 of 7,044 batters (9%) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Chase De Jong (Pirates): Knee, D15
- Robert Zastryzny (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D10
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Christian Greene (Reds): Shin, Day-to-Day
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Bicep/Shoulder, D10
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