- The Reds are -110 favorites vs the Pirates
- Reds starting pitcher: Brandon Williamson
- Pirates starting pitcher: Andre Jackson
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Cincinnati Reds (-110) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-110) on Saturday, August 12, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Reds are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Reds vs Pirates Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Reds are 61-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 57-59 ATS.
Reds vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | -1.5 +145 | O 9.5 -120 | -110 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -175 | U 9.5 +100 | -110 |
Reds vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 54.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+13.80 Units / 28% ROI)
- Will Benson has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 24 away games (+11.90 Units / 50% ROI)
- Will Benson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 24 away games (+11.10 Units / 38% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 22 away games (+10.30 Units / 42% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+8.95 Units / 128% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jared Triolo has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+11.45 Units / 40% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.85 Units / 47% ROI)
- Connor Joe has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+10.45 Units / 25% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+10.35 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+10.05 Units / 47% ROI)
Pirates vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Alika Williams | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Pirates vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Alika Williams | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +100 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Pirates vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Alika Williams | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -400 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson | 3.5 +100 | 3.5 -135 |
| Brandon Williamson | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +115 |
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 58 of their last 87 games (+25.64 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 73 of their last 117 games (+25.15 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 44 away games (+21.55 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 39 of their last 87 games (+16.25 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 42 away games (+13.95 Units / 28% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 53 of their last 88 games (+15.25 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+9.29 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 19 games (+7.69 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+5.49 Units / 67% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 73-45 against the Run Line (+24.15 Units / 15.77% ROI).
- 61-57 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.55 Units / 10.57% ROI
- 60-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.45 Units / -1.14% ROI
- 56-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.7 Units / -7.61% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 57-59 against the Run Line (-16.45 Units / -10.8% ROI).
- 52-64 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.75 Units / 1.39% ROI
- 61-49 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.55 Units / 5.99% ROI
- 49-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.95 Units / -14.14% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brandon Williamson allowed an OBP of just .143 (21 PA’s) against right-handed batters — 5th best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .298 — 92nd Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 34% (59/175) against Brandon Williamson this season — 15th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 11th Percentile.
Brandon Williamson has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (357/850) in non-two strike counts this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 97th Percentile.
Brandon Williamson has walked 11 of 90 batters (12%) versus the bottom of the order this season — tied for 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: 7% — fifth Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Andre Jackson has not allowed a runner to reach base (15 PA’s) — best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .310 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitless in 15 AB’s against Andre Jackson over the last 14 days (2 games) — tied for best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .220 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitless in 15 AB’s against Andre Jackson — tied for best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .230 — 100th Percentile.
Andre Jackson has allowed an OPS of just .000 (15 PA’s) — best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .689 — 100th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Reds are just 11-19 (.367) after a loss as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .584.
The Reds are just 40-31 (.563) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .699.
The Reds are 21-39 (.350) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .218.
The Reds were just 17-21 (.447) when hitting 2 or more home runs in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Pirates are just 16-30 (.348) after a road win since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .489.
The Pirates are just 46-67 (.407) after a win since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Pirates are just 13-127 (.093) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Pirates are just 114-163 (.412) since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting .257 on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
The Reds are 71-46 (.602) against the run line (12.2% ROI) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .493.
The Reds are batting just .144 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
The Reds have a winning percentage of just 44% at home since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .506 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .575.
The Pirates are batting just .150 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
The Pirates are batting just .221 on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .301 (7,034 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,046 of 10,816 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .294 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Reds pitchers have won 50% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,005 of 10,709 batters (9%) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 66% of their games at home this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 4.90 (533.0 IP) at home this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.18.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jarlín García (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Tucupita Marcano (Pirates): Knee, D60
- Dauri Moreta (Pirates): Back, D15
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pirates): Ankle, D10
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Alexander Young (Reds): Back, Day-to-Day
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand (Reds): Hand, Day-to-Day
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Curtis Casali (Reds): Foot, D10
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Christian Greene (Reds): Hip, D60
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Jake Fraley (Reds): Toe, D10
- Edward Lively (Reds): Pectoral, D15
- Jonathan India (Reds): Heel, D10
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