- The Reds are -115 favorites vs the Pirates
- Reds vs Pirates Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Reds / Pirates TV Channel: ATV
The Cincinnati Reds (-115) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-105) on Friday, August 8, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Reds are 60-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 61-53 ATS.
Reds vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Chase Burns 0-3, 5.84 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller 5-10, 3.90 ERA
Reds vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | -1.5 +150 | O 7.5 -110 | -115 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -185 | U 7.5 -110 | -105 |
Reds vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Friday‘s MLB game with 52.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Spencer Steer has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+16.20 Units / 50% ROI)
- Austin Hays has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+10.80 Units / 42% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.55 Units / 25% ROI)
- Gavin Lux has hit the Walks Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 48% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+8.95 Units / 24% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+8.15 Units / 102% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games at home (+7.80 Units / 31% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+5.40 Units / 53% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the RBIs Over in 5 of his last 9 games at home (+5.35 Units / 59% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 93 games (+26.00 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 41 away games (+8.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 53 games (+5.95 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.50 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.00 Units / 11% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 71 of their last 115 games (+22.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 49 of their last 78 games (+19.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 60 of their last 104 games (+16.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 41 games at home (+11.74 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 58 games (+11.70 Units / 17% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 61-54 against the Run Line (-1.68 Units / -1.08% ROI).
- 60-56 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.05 Units / -0.74% ROI
- 42-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -33.14 Units / -26.12% ROI
- 69-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +22.95 Units / 17.86% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 61-53 against the Run Line (-0.25 Units / -0.16% ROI).
- 50-66 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.45 Units / -9.53% ROI
- 47-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -24.4 Units / -19.09% ROI
- 65-47 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.7 Units / 10.75% ROI
Pirates vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Matt McLain (CIN) | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -1400 |
Pirates vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| TJ Friedl (CIN) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Matt McLain (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Gavin Lux (CIN) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Pirates vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Noelvi Marte (CIN) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller (PIT) | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +120 |
| Chase Burns (CIN) | 7.5 -130 | 7.5 +100 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chase Burns has limited playing time.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitch Keller has a strike rate of 69% (687/993) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .254 (67-for-264) against Mitch Keller’s non-fastballs this season — 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .216 — 13th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 20% (206/1,039) against Mitch Keller this season — tied for 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 11th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has walked 4% of right-handed batters this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 94th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Reds are just 9-24 (.273) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 7-107 (.061) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .095.
The Reds are just 9-104 (.080) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .135.
The Reds are just 6-27 (.182) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Pirates are just 12-76 (.136) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
The Pirates are just 3-26 (.103) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .292.
The Pirates are just 10-63 (.137) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.
The Pirates are just 3-48 (.059) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .122.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
team pitchers – away
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
team pitchers – home
More MLB Reading:
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The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
