Reds vs Pirates Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 26

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 26, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Pirates (56-97) are -160 favorites vs the Reds (60-93)
  • Reds starting pitcher: Robert Anderson (2-3), 5.21 ERA
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Roansy Contreras (5-5), 3.68 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet PT

The Cincinnati Reds (+135) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-160) on Monday, September 26, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.

The Pirates are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Reds vs Pirates Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Reds are 60-92 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 76-76 ATS.

Reds vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Reds+1.5 -155O 7.5 -105+135
Pirates -1.5 +125U 7.5 -115-160

Reds vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Monday‘s matchup with 57.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Pirates vs Reds and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 36 away games (+10.40 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 41 away games (+10.30 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Mike Minor has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.25 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 110% ROI)

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 30 of his last 54 games at home (+11.35 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Jack Suwinski has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 29 games at home (+8.95 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Rodolfo Castro has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 40 games (+8.75 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Kevin Newman has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 49% ROI)
  • JT Brubaker has hit the Strikeouts Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.95 Units / 43% ROI)

Pirates vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Cal Mitchell 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Jack Suwinski 0.5 +400 0.5 -700
Kevin Newman 0.5 +900 0.5 -5000
Oneil Cruz 0.5 +375 0.5 -700

Pirates vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Cal Mitchell 0.5 -185 0.5 +125
Jack Suwinski 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
Kevin Newman 0.5 -185 0.5 +130
Oneil Cruz 0.5 -200 0.5 +145

Pirates vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Cal Mitchell 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Jack Suwinski 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Kevin Newman 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Oneil Cruz 0.5 +170 0.5 -250

Pirates vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Chase Anderson 3.5 -135 3.5 -105
Roansy Contreras 5.5 +100 5.5 -140
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 69 of their last 125 games (+14.55 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 58 away games (+8.95 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 54 away games (+8.30 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.11 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 31 of their last 56 away games (+4.70 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 24 of their last 44 games at home (+6.30 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.75 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 27 games (+5.00 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+3.90 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+3.55 Units / 44% ROI)

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 72-80 against the Run Line (-14.35 Units / -7.7% ROI).

  • 60-92 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.95 Units / -9.81% ROI
  • 72-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.45 Units / -7.4% ROI
  • 76-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.6 Units / -2.16% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 76-76 against the Run Line (-7.8 Units / -4.14% ROI).

  • 56-96 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.35 Units / -10.35% ROI
  • 69-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.7 Units / -7% ROI
  • 74-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.6 Units / -0.95% ROI

Chase Anderson has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 46% (25/55) of opposing batters this month (4 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 24% (6/25) against Chase Anderson — 7th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 38% — 96th Percentile.

Chase Anderson has a first-pitch strike rate of just 48% (30/63) this month (4 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.

Chase Anderson has allowed a slugging percentage of just .180 (9 Total Bases / 50 ABs) this month (4 games) — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: .402 — 97th Percentile.

Roansy Contreras: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a line drive rate of 35% (19/54) against Roansy Contreras on elevated fastballs this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 23% — fourth Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (7/59) against Roansy Contreras on low breaking pitches this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 35% (71/204) against Roansy Contreras with runners in scoring position this season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 96th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 17% (20/117) against Roansy Contreras on breaking pitches this season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 96th Percentile.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Reds are just 5-74 (.063) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Reds are 11-7 (.611) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Reds are just 8-29 (.216) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.

The Reds are just 31-47 (.397) at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .525.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Pirates are just 17-83 (.170) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

The Pirates are just 2-77 (.025) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Pirates are just 93-25 (.788) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .874.

The Pirates are just 6-12 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Reds are batting just .305 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.

Reds hitters have 757 strikeouts in 3,147 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Reds hitters are slugging just .353 on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .390.

Reds hitters are slugging just .371 against RHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .394.

The Pirates are batting just .143 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

The Pirates have a winning percentage of just 32% on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

The Pirates are batting just .138 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .174 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

Reds pitchers have walked 1,186 of 12,040 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds pitchers have walked 569 of 5,841 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds pitchers have walked 24 of 204 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (23 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .278 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .238.

Pirates pitchers have walked 94 of 853 batters (11%) this month (22 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 1,406 of 14,205 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 1,157 of 11,978 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 63% of their games since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Pirates vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Tyler Heineman (Pirates): Concussion, D7
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Lat, D60
  • Eric Stout (Pirates): Undisclosed, D15
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Lat, D15
  • Colin Holderman (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Robert Dugger (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D60
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
  • Nicholas Senzel (Reds): Toe, D60
  • Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Michael Minor (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Joseph Votto (Reds): Rotator Cuff, D60
  • Michael Moustakas (Reds): Calf, D60
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Donovan Solano (Reds): Eye, Day-to-Day
  • Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.