- The Reds (60-94) are -105 favorites vs the Pirates (57-97)
- Reds starting pitcher: Christian Greene (4-13), 4.90 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller (5-12), 3.98 ERA
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Cincinnati Reds (-105) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-115) on Tuesday, September 27, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Reds are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Reds vs Pirates Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Reds are 60-94 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 77-77 ATS.
Reds vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | -1.5 +165 | O 7 -110 | -105 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -200 | U 7 -110 | -115 |
Reds vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 53.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 37 away games (+11.40 Units / 15% ROI)
- Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 41 away games (+10.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- Mike Minor has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.25 Units / 75% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 110% ROI)
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 30 of his last 55 games at home (+10.35 Units / 13% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 30 games at home (+9.95 Units / 24% ROI)
- Kevin Newman has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 27 games (+8.75 Units / 30% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 40 games (+8.75 Units / 12% ROI)
Pirates vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Cal Mitchell | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jason Delay | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Miguel Andujar | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
Pirates vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Cal Mitchell | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 -105 |
| Jason Delay | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -135 |
| Miguel Andujar | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
Pirates vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Cal Mitchell | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -375 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jason Delay | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
| Miguel Andujar | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
Pirates vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Hunter Greene | 7.5 -110 | 7.5 -130 |
| Mitch Keller | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -160 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 70 of their last 126 games (+15.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 62 games (+10.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.11 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 59 away games (+7.40 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 55 away games (+7.30 Units / 13% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 41 games at home (+10.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 50 of their last 90 games (+7.25 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 24 of their last 45 games at home (+6.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+4.90 Units / 22% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 72-82 against the Run Line (-16.9 Units / -8.94% ROI).
- 60-94 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.15 Units / -11.01% ROI
- 74-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.45 Units / -6.13% ROI
- 76-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.8 Units / -3.43% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 77-77 against the Run Line (-7.7 Units / -4.04% ROI).
- 57-97 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.35 Units / -10.18% ROI
- 71-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.7 Units / -5.72% ROI
- 74-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.8 Units / -2.23% ROI
Christian Greene: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hunter Greene has thrown 428 fastballs at 100+ MPH this season — 2nd most among pitchers in MLB — 98th Percentile.
Hunter Greene has allowed a slugging percentage of .775 (31 Total Bases / 40 ABs) on low fastballs this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: .430 — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .500 (20-for-40) against Hunter Greene on low fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: .277 — 0 Percentile.
Hunter Greene has an average fastball velocity of 98.9 MPH this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — 100th Percentile.
Mitch Keller: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .404 (190-for-470) against Mitch Keller in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: .331 — 0 Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .304 (139-for-457) against Mitch Keller since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: .235 — third Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 34% (48/142) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Mitch Keller has a first-pitch strike rate of just 56% (613/1,088) since the start of last season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 62% — fourth Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Reds are just 5-74 (.063) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Reds are just 6-170 (.034) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Reds are just 58-76 (.433) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Reds are just 4-80 (.048) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Pirates are just 93-25 (.788) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .874.
The Pirates are just 17-83 (.170) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Pirates are just 57-131 (.303) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .465.
The Pirates are just 2-77 (.025) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .308 over the last 14 days (15 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .391.
Reds hitters are slugging just .491 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.
Reds hitters have 757 strikeouts in 3,157 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Reds hitters are slugging just .396 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .448.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .143 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Pirates have answered-back in just 23% of innings after an opponent scores since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .175 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .171 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have walked 253 of 2,798 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .299 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .278 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Reds pitchers have walked 300 of 3,303 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 556 of 5,916 batters (9%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 99 of 931 batters (11%) this month (24 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,411 of 14,283 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 238 of 2,745 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tyler Heineman (Pirates): Concussion, D7
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Lat, D60
- Eric Stout (Pirates): Undisclosed, D15
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Lat, D15
- Colin Holderman (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Robert Dugger (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D60
- Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
- Nicholas Senzel (Reds): Toe, D60
- Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Michael Minor (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Rotator Cuff, D60
- Michael Moustakas (Reds): Calf, D60
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Donovan Solano (Reds): Eye, Day-to-Day
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D15
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