Reds vs Pirates Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 27

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 27, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Reds (60-94) are -105 favorites vs the Pirates (57-97)
  • Reds starting pitcher: Christian Greene (4-13), 4.90 ERA
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller (5-12), 3.98 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet PT

The Cincinnati Reds (-105) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-115) on Tuesday, September 27, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.

The Reds are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).

The Reds vs Pirates Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Reds are 60-94 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 77-77 ATS.

Reds vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Reds-1.5 +165O 7 -110-105
Pirates +1.5 -200U 7 -110-115

Reds vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 53.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Pirates vs Reds and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 37 away games (+11.40 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 41 away games (+10.30 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Mike Minor has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.25 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 110% ROI)

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 30 of his last 55 games at home (+10.35 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Jack Suwinski has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 30 games at home (+9.95 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Kevin Newman has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 27 games (+8.75 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Rodolfo Castro has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 40 games (+8.75 Units / 12% ROI)

Pirates vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Cal Mitchell 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Jack Suwinski 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Jason Delay 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000
Miguel Andujar 0.5 +625 0.5 -2000

Pirates vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Cal Mitchell 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
Jack Suwinski 0.5 -135 0.5 -105
Jason Delay 0.5 -105 0.5 -135
Miguel Andujar 0.5 -175 0.5 +120

Pirates vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Cal Mitchell 0.5 +250 0.5 -375
Jack Suwinski 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Jason Delay 0.5 +280 0.5 -450
Miguel Andujar 0.5 +200 0.5 -300

Pirates vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Hunter Greene 7.5 -110 7.5 -130
Mitch Keller 5.5 +110 5.5 -160
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 70 of their last 126 games (+15.55 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 62 games (+10.70 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.11 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 59 away games (+7.40 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 55 away games (+7.30 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 41 games at home (+10.60 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 50 of their last 90 games (+7.25 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 24 of their last 45 games at home (+6.30 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+4.90 Units / 22% ROI)

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 72-82 against the Run Line (-16.9 Units / -8.94% ROI).

  • 60-94 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.15 Units / -11.01% ROI
  • 74-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.45 Units / -6.13% ROI
  • 76-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.8 Units / -3.43% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 77-77 against the Run Line (-7.7 Units / -4.04% ROI).

  • 57-97 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.35 Units / -10.18% ROI
  • 71-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.7 Units / -5.72% ROI
  • 74-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.8 Units / -2.23% ROI

Hunter Greene has thrown 428 fastballs at 100+ MPH this season — 2nd most among pitchers in MLB — 98th Percentile.

Hunter Greene has allowed a slugging percentage of .775 (31 Total Bases / 40 ABs) on low fastballs this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: .430 — third Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .500 (20-for-40) against Hunter Greene on low fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: .277 — 0 Percentile.

Hunter Greene has an average fastball velocity of 98.9 MPH this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — 100th Percentile.

Mitch Keller: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting .404 (190-for-470) against Mitch Keller in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: .331 — 0 Percentile.

Left-handed batters are hitting .304 (139-for-457) against Mitch Keller since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: .235 — third Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 34% (48/142) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.

Mitch Keller has a first-pitch strike rate of just 56% (613/1,088) since the start of last season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 62% — fourth Percentile.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Reds are just 5-74 (.063) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Reds are just 6-170 (.034) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Reds are just 58-76 (.433) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.

The Reds are just 4-80 (.048) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Pirates are just 93-25 (.788) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .874.

The Pirates are just 17-83 (.170) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

The Pirates are just 57-131 (.303) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .465.

The Pirates are just 2-77 (.025) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

Reds hitters are slugging just .308 over the last 14 days (15 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .391.

Reds hitters are slugging just .491 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.

Reds hitters have 757 strikeouts in 3,157 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Reds hitters are slugging just .396 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .448.

The Pirates are batting just .143 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

The Pirates have answered-back in just 23% of innings after an opponent scores since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .175 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .171 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

Reds pitchers have walked 253 of 2,798 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .299 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .248.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .278 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .238.

Reds pitchers have walked 300 of 3,303 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 556 of 5,916 batters (9%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 99 of 931 batters (11%) this month (24 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 1,411 of 14,283 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 238 of 2,745 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Tyler Heineman (Pirates): Concussion, D7
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Lat, D60
  • Eric Stout (Pirates): Undisclosed, D15
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Lat, D15
  • Colin Holderman (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Robert Dugger (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D60
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
  • Nicholas Senzel (Reds): Toe, D60
  • Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Michael Minor (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Joseph Votto (Reds): Rotator Cuff, D60
  • Michael Moustakas (Reds): Calf, D60
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Donovan Solano (Reds): Eye, Day-to-Day
  • Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.