Reds vs Pirates Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 28

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 28, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The (106-48) are favorites vs the (106-48)
  • Reds starting pitcher: Luis Cessa (4-4), 4.78 ERA
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Bryse Wilson (3-9), 5.95 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Cincinnati Reds () visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates () on Wednesday, September 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.

The are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().

The Reds vs Pirates Over/Under is total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Reds are 60-95 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 78-77 ATS.

Reds vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Reds O
Pirates U

Reds vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 54.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Pirates vs Reds and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 37 away games (+11.40 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 41 away games (+10.30 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Mike Minor has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.25 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 110% ROI)

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 30 of his last 55 games at home (+10.35 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Jack Suwinski has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 30 games at home (+9.95 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Kevin Newman has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 27 games (+8.75 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Rodolfo Castro has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 40 games (+8.75 Units / 12% ROI)

Pirates vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +475 0.5 -1100
Ji-hwan Bae 0.5 +1100 0.5
Ke'Bryan Hayes 0.5 +900 0.5 -10000
Oneil Cruz 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Alejo Lopez 0.5 +1150 0.5

Pirates vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryan Reynolds 1.5 +185 1.5 -275
Ji-hwan Bae 0.5 -165 0.5 +120
Ke'Bryan Hayes 0.5 -225 0.5 +160
Oneil Cruz 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Alejo Lopez 1.5 +190 1.5 -275

Pirates vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
Ji-hwan Bae 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Ke'Bryan Hayes 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Oneil Cruz 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Alejo Lopez 0.5 +190 0.5 -275

Pirates vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryse Wilson 3.5 +105 3.5 -145
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.80 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.75 Units / 47% ROI)

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 72-83 against the Run Line (-19.1 Units / -9.99% ROI).

  • 60-95 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.2 Units / -11.57% ROI
  • 74-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.5 Units / -6.71% ROI
  • 77-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.8 Units / -2.82% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 78-77 against the Run Line (-5.9 Units / -3.08% ROI).

  • 58-97 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.35 Units / -9.49% ROI
  • 71-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.75 Units / -6.31% ROI
  • 75-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.8 Units / -1.64% ROI

Luis Cessa has a strike rate of just 59% (182/309) in two strike counts this season — 4th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 66% — fourth Percentile.

Luis Cessa has allowed an OBP of .305 (141 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — tied for 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .231 — fourth Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .373 (22-for-59) against Luis Cessa with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .244 — first Percentile.

Luis Cessa has allowed a slugging percentage of .511 (70 Total Bases / 137 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — 5th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .359 — fifth Percentile.

Bryse Wilson: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Bryse Wilson has allowed an OPS of 1.013 (187 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: .721 — 0 Percentile.

Bryse Wilson has allowed a slugging percentage of .490 (50 Total Bases / 102 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: .306 — second Percentile.

Bryse Wilson has a strikeout rate of just 11% (20 SO in 187 PAs) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 0 Percentile.

Bryse Wilson has allowed a slugging percentage of .535 (189 Total Bases / 353 ABs) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: .387 — second Percentile.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Reds are just 5-74 (.063) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .118.

The Reds are just 8-29 (.216) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .338.

The Reds are just 29-48 (.377) on the road this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .475.

The Reds are just 43-9 (.827) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .882.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Pirates are just 57-131 (.303) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .465.

The Pirates are just 93-25 (.788) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Pirates are just 18-83 (.178) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

The Pirates are just 9-61 (.129) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .199.

Reds hitters are slugging just .489 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.

Reds hitters are slugging just .352 on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .391.

The Reds are batting just .321 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.

Reds hitters have 757 strikeouts in 3,157 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Pirates are batting just .143 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .655 (3,509 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .726.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .364 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.

The Pirates are batting just .115 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .157.

Reds pitchers have walked 580 of 5,952 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds pitchers have walked 1,410 of 14,276 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Reds pitchers have walked 1,197 of 12,151 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds pitchers have walked 105 of 971 batters (11%) this month (26 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 1,165 of 12,092 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 15.75 (8.0 IP) on the road over the past seven days (1 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.93.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 63% of their games since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The Pirates have won just 24% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Pirates vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Tyler Heineman (Pirates): Concussion, D7
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Lat, D60
  • Eric Stout (Pirates): Undisclosed, D15
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Lat, D15
  • Colin Holderman (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Robert Dugger (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D60
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
  • Nicholas Senzel (Reds): Toe, D60
  • Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Michael Minor (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Joseph Votto (Reds): Rotator Cuff, D60
  • Michael Moustakas (Reds): Calf, D60
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.