- The Rangers are -160 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds starting pitcher: Robert Anderson, 0.00 ERA
- Rangers starting pitcher: Cole Ragans, 1.50 ERA
The Cincinnati Reds (+135) visit Surprise Stadium to take on the Texas Rangers (-160) on Saturday, March 11, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 3:05pm EST in Surprise.
The Rangers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Reds vs Rangers Over/Under is 11.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Reds are 4-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Rangers are 5-5 ATS.
Reds vs. Rangers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -145 | O 11.5 -110 | +135 |
| Rangers | -1.5 +120 | U 11.5 -110 | -160 |
Reds vs Rangers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rangers will win Saturday‘s Spring Training matchup with 61.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Rangers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 24 games (+16.41 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 70 games (+13.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 73 of their last 134 games (+12.70 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.30 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 20 of their last 34 games (+6.30 Units / 17% ROI)
Rangers Best Bets Today:
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 68 of their last 123 games (+18.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+11.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 84 of their last 151 games (+9.55 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+5.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.30 Units / 32% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 4-5 against the Run Line (-1 Units / -9.26% ROI).
- 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.6 Units / 6% ROI
- 5-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.5 Units / 5.03% ROI
- 4-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.55 Units / -15.74% ROI
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rangers have gone 5-5 against the Run Line (-0.35 Units / -2.64% ROI).
- 4-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.6 Units / -22.51% ROI
- 6-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.55 Units / 22.97% ROI
- 3-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.45 Units / -31.22% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a line drive rate of 34% (23/68) versus Cole Ragans over the last 30 days of the regular season (5 games) — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Cole Ragans threw his changeup 37% of the time (109/292) against right-handed batters over the last 30 days of the regular season (5 games) — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total CH; League Avg: 14% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents batted .423 (11-for-26) against Cole Ragans versus the bottom of the order over the last 30 days of the regular season (5 games) — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: .234 — fourth Percentile.
Cole Ragans threw his changeup 33% of the time (117/353) over the last 30 days of the regular season (5 games) — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total CH; League Avg: 16% — 95th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Reds are just 6-78 (.071) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Reds are just 6-176 (.033) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Reds are just 11-76 (.126) when allowing 5 or more runs last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Reds are just 24-83 (.224) when scoring 4 or fewer runs last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Rangers are just 53-11 (.828) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Rangers are 11-8 (.579) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rangers are just 34-47 (.420) at home last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Rangers are just 49-11 (.817) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .881.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds batted just .298 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Reds hitters slugged just .366 against RHP last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .393.
Reds hitters have an OBP of .334 (6,050 PA’s) at home since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Reds hitters had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 36% against RHP in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .296 (8,250 PA’s) against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Rangers hitters had a swing rate of 37% on the first pitch of at-bats last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .295 (9,712 PA’s) against RHP since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Rangers hitters had an OBP of just .295 (4,219 PA’s) against RHP last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have walked 1,229 of 12,419 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,442 of 14,544 batters (10%) since the 2020 season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Reds pitchers walked 130 of 1,427 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in 2022 — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Reds allowed 1.66 runs per game (269/162) in late innings in 2022 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
Rangers pitchers walked 139 of 1,440 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Rangers pitchers walked 581 of 6,167 batters (9%) last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 46% against Rangers pitchers last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Rangers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games on the road since the start of the 2021 season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Rangers vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Brett Martin (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
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