Reds vs Rays Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 26

Tampa Bay Rays' Josh Lowe pumps his fist while rounding the bases on his solo home run during the second inning of a baseball game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park, Wednesday, Sept. 27, 2023, in Boston.
(AP Photo/Charles Krupa)
  • The Reds are -110 favorites vs the Rays
  • Reds vs Rays Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
  • Reds / Rays TV Channel: BSOH | BSUN

The Cincinnati Reds (-110) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-110) on Friday, July 26, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:50pm EDT in St. Petersburg, FL.

This season, the Reds are 49-53 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 50-53 ATS.

Reds vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Reds starting pitcher: Nick Lodolo 8-3, 3.55 ERA
  • Rays starting pitcher: Shane Baz 0-1, 3.95 ERA

Reds vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Reds-1.5 +155O 7.5 -115-110
Rays +1.5 -190U 7.5 -105-110

Reds vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Elly De La Cruz has hit the Stolen Bases Over in 12 of his last 17 away games (+15.20 Units / 89% ROI)
  • Elly De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 41 games (+14.00 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 49 games (+10.35 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Jonathan India has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 49 games (+9.95 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Spencer Steer has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.60 Units / 37% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Brandon Lowe has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 32 games (+22.80 Units / 71% ROI)
  • Isaac Paredes has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 26 games (+16.30 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Isaac Paredes has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+13.70 Units / 86% ROI)
  • Isaac Paredes has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 31 games (+11.45 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Alex Jackson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+11.10 Units / 57% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 49 of their last 84 games (+11.20 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 86 games (+10.50 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 24 away games (+7.15 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 87 games (+6.15 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 63 of their last 100 games (+23.60 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 54 of their last 94 games (+10.00 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 32 games (+9.15 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 23 games at home (+7.40 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+7.05 Units / 49% ROI)

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Reds are 57-45 against the Run Line (+7.35 Units / 5.47% ROI).

  • 49-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.45 Units / -4.44% ROI
  • 46-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.25 Units / -10.85% ROI
  • 52-46 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.15 Units / 1.03% ROI

Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Rays are 50-53 against the Run Line (-6.6 Units / -4.82% ROI).

  • 52-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.95 Units / -6.25% ROI
  • 50-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.8 Units / -4.23% ROI
  • 50-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.7 Units / -4.15% ROI

Rays vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jeimer Candelario (CIN) 0.5 +500 0.5 -700
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) 0.5 +550 0.5 -800
Spencer Steer (CIN) 0.5 +550 0.5 -800
Will Benson (CIN) 0.5 +650 0.5 -1000
Isaac Paredes (TB) 0.5 +650 0.5 -1000

Rays vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario (TB) 0.5 -275 0.5 +200
Tyler Stephenson (CIN) 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Jonathan India (CIN) 0.5 -225 0.5 +165
Spencer Steer (CIN) 0.5 -210 0.5 +155
Jeimer Candelario (CIN) 0.5 -210 0.5 +160

Rays vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jeimer Candelario (CIN) 0.5 +150 0.5 -200
Spencer Steer (CIN) 0.5 +160 0.5 -225
Curtis Mead (TB) 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Tyler Stephenson (CIN) 0.5 +180 0.5 -250
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) 0.5 +200 0.5 -275

Rays vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Nick Lodolo (CIN) 6.5 +100 6.5 -130
Shane Baz (TB) 5.5 +105 5.5 -140

Nick Lodolo has allowed an OBP of just .111 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — tied for best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .289 — 100th Percentile.

Nick Lodolo has allowed a slugging percentage of just .160 (13 Total Bases / 81 ABs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .400 — 100th Percentile.

Nick Lodolo has thrown inside pitches 45% of the time (534/1,186) with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 170 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 98th Percentile.

Nick Lodolo has thrown inside pitches 45% of the time (182/409) with two-strikes this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 98th Percentile.

Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Left-handed batters are hitting .364 (12-for-33) against Shane Baz this month (3 games) — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: .244 — third Percentile.

Shane Baz has allowed an OBP of .444 (27 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (3 games) — tied for 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: .323 — 11th Percentile.

Shane Baz has allowed an OPS of 1.053 (38 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this month (3 games) — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: .734 — seventh Percentile.

Shane Baz has a strikeout rate of just 11% (3 SO in 27 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (3 games) — tied for 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 21% — 10th Percentile.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Rays

The Reds are just 1-10 (.091) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Reds are just 2-12 (.143) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Reds are just 28-33 (.459) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .586.

The Reds are 11-18 (.379) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.

Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Rays are 44-14 (.759) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .573.

The Rays are just 14-29 (.326) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .424.

The Rays are 112-5 (.957) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .898.

The Rays are just 21-43 (.328) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .415.

The Reds are batting just .110 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .152.

Reds hitters have 102 extra-base hits out of 253 total hits (40%) with two-strikes this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

The Reds are 32-15 (.681) against the run line (22.8% ROI) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .462.

Reds hitters are slugging just .147 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .209.

Rays hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Rays hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

The Rays scored first in 64% of their games in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Rays hitters have 190 strikeouts in 583 PA’s (33%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .291 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .255.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Rays pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Rays pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 29% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Rays pitchers have walked 1,115 of 15,823 batters (7%) since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Rays pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Rays vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jeffrey Springs (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Jonathan Aranda (Tampa Bay Rays): Oblique, 7-Day IL
  • Ryan Pepiot (Tampa Bay Rays): Knee, 15-Day IL
  • Yandy Diaz (Tampa Bay Rays): Personal, Out
  • Garrett Acton (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Drew Rasmussen (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Shane McClanahan (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Wander Franco (Tampa Bay Rays): Personal, Out
  • Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, 15-Day IL
  • Nick Martini (Cincinnati Reds): Thumb, 60-Day IL
  • Carson Spiers (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
  • Christian Encarnacion-Strand (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 60-Day IL
  • Tejay Antone (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Luke Maile (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 10-Day IL
  • Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
  • Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Day-To-Day
  • TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
  • Brent Suter (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
  • Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
  • Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 60-Day IL
  • Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
  • Emilio Pagan (Cincinnati Reds): Lat, 60-Day IL
  • Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, 7-Day IL

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Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.