- The are + favorites vs the
- Reds vs Red Sox Over / Under today: Runs
- Reds / Red Sox TV Channel: FDOH | NESN
The Cincinnati Reds (+) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+) on Wednesday, July 2, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Reds are 44-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 42-43 ATS.
Reds vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Nick Martinez 5-8, 4.17 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Lucas Giolito 4-1, 4.04 ERA
Reds vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | + + | O + | + |
| Red Sox | + + | U + | + |
Reds vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 53.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 away games (+26.20 Units / 328% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+10.20 Units / 32% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+10.10 Units / 37% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 8 away games (+8.85 Units / 83% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+8.10 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+20.00 Units / 200% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+10.30 Units / 35% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+9.10 Units / 101% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+8.85 Units / 31% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+8.30 Units / 17% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 62 games (+10.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 22 games (+7.25 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 75 games (+3.70 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 45 of their last 82 games (+3.35 Units / 3% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 45 of their last 76 games (+9.05 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 39 of their last 68 games (+8.05 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 29 games (+7.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games at home (+6.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+5.80 Units / 50% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 45-39 against the Run Line (-1 Units / -0.87% ROI).
- 44-41 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.25 Units / 0.25% ROI
- 36-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.05 Units / -16.2% ROI
- 47-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.45 Units / 7.92% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 42-43 against the Run Line (-1.7 Units / -1.56% ROI).
- 42-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.36 Units / -9.27% ROI
- 40-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.67 Units / -10.19% ROI
- 45-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.05 Units / 1.11% ROI
Red Sox vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Roman Anthony (BOS) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Carlos Narvaez (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand (CIN) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Will Benson (CIN) | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
Red Sox vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Narvaez (BOS) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Roman Anthony (BOS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Matt McLain (CIN) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Martinez has a in-zone of 69% (218/317) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 59% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% (33/103) against Nick Martinez in two-strike counts this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — fourth Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 34% (43/127) against Nick Martinez this season — 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 13th Percentile.
Nick Martinez has struck out just 15% (31/203) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — eighth Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of 57% (12/21) against Lucas Giolito in late innings this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Lucas Giolito has allowed an OBP of just .118 (17 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — 3rd best among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .286 — 96th Percentile.
Lucas Giolito has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last four games dating back to June 10th — David Peterson has the longest active streak at 7.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (15/91) against Lucas Giolito over the last 14 days — tied for 4th lowest among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 25% — 11th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Reds are just 1-32 (.030) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .127.
The Reds are just 7-93 (.070) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .138.
The Reds are just 41-4 (.911) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .956.
The Reds were just 5-16 (.238) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Red Sox are 11-5 (.688) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Reds (Ranks 10th runs scored) today.
The Red Sox were just 5-58 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Red Sox were just 18-69 (.207) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
The Red Sox are just 16-158 (.092) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .139.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have a swing rate of just 45% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Reds are batting just .221 against LHP this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .241.
The Reds are batting just .125 on pitches out of the zone since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .149.
Reds hitters have a swing rate of just 57% with two-strikes this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 60%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Red Sox are batting .270 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Red Sox hitters have struck out in 26% of their PA’s against LHP since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Reds pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Batters facing the Reds pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 54% of the time this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 12% of batters over the last 14 days — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Red Sox pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Batters facing the Red Sox pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 60% of the time over the last 14 days — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. over the last 14 days — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
More MLB Reading:
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