- The Red Sox are -160 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Reds / Red Sox TV Channel: FDOH | NESN
The Cincinnati Reds (+140) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-170) on Monday, June 30, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Reds are 44-40 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 41-43 ATS.
Reds vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Chase Burns 0-0, 5.41 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Garrett Crochet 7-4, 2.08 ERA
Reds vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -145 | O 7.5 +100 | +140 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +120 | U 7.5 -120 | -170 |
Reds vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Monday‘s MLB game with 61.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 10 away games (+30.80 Units / 308% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+10.20 Units / 32% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+9.05 Units / 59% ROI)
- Tyler Stephenson has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.85 Units / 59% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+8.40 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+21.00 Units / 233% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+10.30 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Garrett Crochet has hit the Earned Runs Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.70 Units / 46% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 61 games (+11.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games (+8.25 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 25 away games (+4.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 45 of their last 81 games (+4.75 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 74 games (+4.70 Units / 5% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 45 of their last 75 games (+10.35 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 39 games at home (+7.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 67 games (+7.05 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 28 games (+6.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+4.80 Units / 51% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 45-38 against the Run Line (+0.4 Units / 0.35% ROI).
- 44-40 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.25 Units / 1.25% ROI
- 35-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.05 Units / -17.47% ROI
- 47-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.6 Units / 9.25% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 41-43 against the Run Line (-2.9 Units / -2.69% ROI).
- 41-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.36 Units / -10.33% ROI
- 39-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.67 Units / -11.37% ROI
- 45-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.2 Units / 2.36% ROI
Red Sox vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Carlos Narvaez (BOS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Red Sox vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Abraham Toro (BOS) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Carlos Narvaez (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Roman Anthony (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Red Sox vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Abraham Toro (BOS) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Carlos Narvaez (BOS) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
Red Sox vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Garrett Crochet (BOS) | 7.5 -150 | 7.5 +115 |
| Chase Burns (CIN) | 5.5 -145 | 5.5 +110 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chase Burns has limited playing time.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Garrett Crochet has a strikeout rate of 37% (159 SO in 429 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Garrett Crochet has a first-pitch in-zone of 73% (36/49) in his last two starts — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 57% — 98th Percentile.
Garrett Crochet has 35 three-pitch strikeouts this season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Garrett Crochet has a strikeout rate of 33% (51 SO in 153 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 93rd Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Reds are just 1-31 (.031) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Reds are just 8-19 (.296) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 41-4 (.911) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .955.
The Reds are just 6-96 (.059) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .098.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Red Sox are 10-5 (.667) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Reds (Ranks 10th runs scored) today.
The Red Sox were just 5-58 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Red Sox were just 18-69 (.207) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
The Red Sox are just 3-103 (.028) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters slugged just .151 on pitches out of the zone in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.
Reds hitters have chased 34% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Reds are batting just .211 against division opponents this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Reds are batting just .125 on pitches out of the zone since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .149.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Red Sox are batting .270 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .347 (938 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Reds pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 54% of the time this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Reds pitchers this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 12% of batters over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Red Sox pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 11% of batters this month (25 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 14% of batters over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
More MLB Reading:
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