- The Red Sox are -185 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds starting pitcher: Edward Lively
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello
- Watch the game on NESN
The Cincinnati Reds (+150) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-185) on Tuesday, May 30, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Reds vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Reds are 24-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 28-25 ATS.
Reds vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -125 | O 9.5 -105 | +150 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +105 | U 9.5 -115 | -185 |
Reds vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 78.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jonathan India has hit the Runs Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+19.35 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+13.95 Units / 24% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 45 games (+11.20 Units / 12% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 40 games (+10.00 Units / 25% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+9.70 Units / 41% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 32 games (+18.55 Units / 49% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 23 of his last 32 games (+11.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- Raimel Tapia has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.75 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+10.25 Units / 32% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+9.90 Units / 52% ROI)
Red Sox vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Red Sox vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Rafael Devers | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -225 |
| Spencer Steer | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Red Sox vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Red Sox vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Lively | 3.5 +100 | 3.5 -135 |
| Brayan Bello | 5.5 -115 | 5.5 -115 |
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 33 of their last 53 games (+10.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 52 games (+7.90 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 31 games (+7.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 46 games (+6.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 away games (+5.85 Units / 68% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 26 games at home (+11.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 26 games at home (+10.45 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 40 games (+9.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 25 games at home (+5.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+5.00 Units / 55% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 31-22 against the Run Line (+6.9 Units / 10.31% ROI).
- 24-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.3 Units / -0.53% ROI
- 30-23 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.25 Units / 9.1% ROI
- 23-30 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.05 Units / -17.06% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 28-25 against the Run Line (-0.3 Units / -0.44% ROI).
- 28-25 when betting on the Moneyline for +5 Units / 8.4% ROI
- 31-20 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.7 Units / 14.99% ROI
- 20-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.75 Units / -25.09% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 46% of Ben Lively’s pitches (30/66) with two-strikes — 2nd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 60% — second Percentile.
Ben Lively has a strikeout rate of 36% (16 SO in 45 PAs) over the last 14 days (2 games) — 4th best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 22% — 93rd Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .167 (7-for-42) against Ben Lively over the last 14 days (2 games) — 4th best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .248 — 93rd Percentile.
Ben Lively has a strikeout rate of 57% (16 SO in 28 PAs) with two-strikes over the last 14 days (2 games) — tied for 4th best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 93rd Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 57% (166/290) against Brayan Bello since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 85 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 64% (29/45) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.
Brayan Bello has allowed a slugging percentage of just .148 (4 Total Bases / 27 ABs) against right-handed batters — 4th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .405 — 95th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 45% (39/86) against Brayan Bello with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 98th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Reds are just 22-23 (.489) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .699.
The Reds are just 4-10 (.286) after a road loss this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Reds are 7-19 (.269) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .134.
The Reds are just 12-20 (.375) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Red Sox are 11-18 (.379) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .212.
The Red Sox are 22-1 (.957) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .866.
The Red Sox are 4-22 (.154) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .097.
The Red Sox are just 7-14 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting .486 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (10 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .281.
Reds hitters are slugging just .219 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.
Reds hitters have an OPS of just .454 (1,083 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
Reds hitters have an OBP of .333 (2,015 PA’s) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .279 at home since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .845 (1,018 PA’s) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .739.
The Red Sox are batting .296 at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .251.
The Red Sox are hitting .339 against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in the game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .304 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .309 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .339 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .259.
The Reds pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 68% of their games on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 30 of 465 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.70 (971.0 IP) at home since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 1,371 times since last season — 5th most in MLB.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Red Sox): Wrist, D60
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- John Schreiber (Red Sox): Side, D15
- Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Foot, Day-to-Day
- Yu-Cheng Chang (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Christian Arroyo (Red Sox): Hamstring, D10
- Richard Bleier (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- William Myers (Reds): Kidney Stones, D10
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Derek Law (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Casey Legumina (Reds): Ankle, D15
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D15
- Henry Ramos (Reds): Hip, D10
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Bicep/Shoulder, D60
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