- The Red Sox are -165 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds starting pitcher: Luke Weaver
- Red Sox starting pitcher: James Paxton
- Watch the game on NESN
The Cincinnati Reds (+140) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-165) on Wednesday, May 31, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Reds vs Red Sox Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Reds are 25-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 28-26 ATS.
Reds vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -135 | O 10.5 -115 | +140 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +110 | U 10.5 -105 | -165 |
Reds vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 77.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jonathan India has hit the Runs Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+19.70 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 46 games (+13.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 46 games (+12.20 Units / 13% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 41 games (+11.55 Units / 28% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.70 Units / 41% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 33 games (+19.70 Units / 51% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 24 of his last 33 games (+12.65 Units / 30% ROI)
- Raimel Tapia has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+12.10 Units / 47% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+11.95 Units / 60% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+11.25 Units / 33% ROI)
Red Sox vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jarren Duran | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
Red Sox vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -210 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Jarren Duran | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Rafael Devers | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -225 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
Red Sox vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jarren Duran | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Red Sox vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luke Weaver | 3.5 -140 | 3.5 +105 |
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 34 of their last 54 games (+11.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 53 games (+8.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 32 games (+8.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 47 games (+7.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 away games (+7.30 Units / 76% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 27 games at home (+12.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 27 games at home (+11.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 41 games (+8.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.25 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+3.20 Units / 29% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 32-22 against the Run Line (+7.9 Units / 11.58% ROI).
- 25-29 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.2 Units / 2.07% ROI
- 31-23 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.25 Units / 10.63% ROI
- 23-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.15 Units / -18.58% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 28-26 against the Run Line (-1.3 Units / -1.86% ROI).
- 28-26 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.35 Units / 5.48% ROI
- 32-20 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.7 Units / 16.4% ROI
- 20-32 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.85 Units / -26.46% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luke Weaver has retired the leadoff hitter in each of his last 11 innings — Evan Phillips has the longest active streak at 13.
Luke Weaver has allowed a slugging percentage of .425 (34 Total Bases / 80 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 21 total IP; League Avg: .280 — fifth Percentile.
Luke Weaver has not walked any of the 42 batters that he has faced when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 21 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Luke Weaver has walked 1 of 35 batters (3%) with runners in scoring position this season — tied for 12th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 21 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 91st Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
James Paxton has allowed at least one HR in each of his last three games dating back to May 12nd — Aaron Nola has the longest active streak at 7.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 23% (8/35) against James Paxton over the last 30 days (3 games) — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 42% — third Percentile.
James Paxton has a strikeout rate of 32% (19 SO in 60 PAs) over the last 30 days (3 games) — tied for 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 21% — 96th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 23% (7/30) against James Paxton over the last 30 days (3 games) — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 41% — third Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Reds are just 22-23 (.489) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Reds are 7-19 (.269) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .133.
The Reds are 6-23 (.207) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .096.
The Reds are just 18-44 (.290) after a road loss since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .450.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Red Sox are just 7-14 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 7-86 (.075) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .122.
The Red Sox are just 5-15 (.250) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .389.
The Red Sox are 4-23 (.148) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .096.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
The Reds are batting .462 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .273.
Reds hitters are slugging just .369 against RHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .396.
Reds hitters have an OPS of just .674 (5,865 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .708.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .279 at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .341 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .266.
The Red Sox are batting .298 at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .251.
The Red Sox are hitting .339 against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in the game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .304 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .310 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Reds pitchers have walked 809 of 8,319 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,426 of 14,518 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 31 of 474 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The longest HR allowed by the Red Sox pitchers this season traveled 469.0 feet — — 5th longest in MLB; League Avg: 457.8
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 59% of their games on the road this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 90.1 MPH (1,359 batted balls) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Red Sox vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Red Sox): Wrist, D60
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- John Schreiber (Red Sox): Side, D15
- Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Foot, Day-to-Day
- Yu-Cheng Chang (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Christian Arroyo (Red Sox): Hamstring, D10
- Richard Bleier (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- William Myers (Reds): Kidney Stones, D10
- Nicholas Senzel (Reds): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Terry Friedl (Reds): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Derek Law (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Casey Legumina (Reds): Ankle, D15
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D15
- Henry Ramos (Reds): Hip, D10
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Bicep/Shoulder, D60
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