- The Reds are +105 favorites vs the Royals
- Reds vs Royals Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Reds / Royals TV Channel: FDOH | FDKC | KSMO | KCTV
The Cincinnati Reds (+105) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-125) on Monday, May 26, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Kansas City, MO, MO.
This season, the Reds are 26-28 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 29-25 ATS.
Reds vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Nick Martinez 2-5, 3.48 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Michael Lorenzen 3-5, 3.77 ERA
Reds vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | -1.5 +170 | O 8 -115 | +105 |
| Royals | +1.5 -210 | U 8 -105 | -125 |
Reds vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Monday‘s MLB game with 51.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Will Benson has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 games (+13.70 Units / 196% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.30 Units / 36% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+7.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.60 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+14.30 Units / 34% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.25 Units / 57% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+10.90 Units / 26% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+8.95 Units / 30% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.10 Units / 43% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 31 games (+11.90 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 away games (+6.95 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 43 games (+5.15 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 44 games (+4.20 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 51 games (+2.50 Units / 4% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 54 games (+25.65 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 46 games (+17.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 32 games (+12.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 33 of their last 53 games (+11.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 30 games (+9.45 Units / 21% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 29-25 against the Run Line (-1.85 Units / -2.47% ROI).
- 26-28 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.75 Units / -8.62% ROI
- 21-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.7 Units / -23.28% ROI
- 32-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.85 Units / 14.76% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 29-25 against the Run Line (-3.5 Units / -4.45% ROI).
- 29-25 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.8 Units / 7.12% ROI
- 18-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.97 Units / -33.95% ROI
- 35-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +15.15 Units / 25.26% ROI
Royals vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -1100 |
Royals vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Maikel Garcia (KC) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jonathan India (KC) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Royals vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Royals vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Lorenzen (KC) | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +120 |
| Nick Martinez (CIN) | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -135 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 74% (32/43) against Nick Martinez’s curve and slider in 2023 — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Nick Martinez has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.2 MPH since the 2023 season (896 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 149 total IP; League Avg: 89.1
Nick Martinez has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.8 MPH against his fastballs since the 2023 season (364 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 149 total IP; League Avg: 90.8
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% (80/241) against Nick Martinez on fastballs since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 85 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 99th Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Lorenzen has allowed a slugging percentage of .522 (35 Total Bases / 67 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .289 — first Percentile.
Michael Lorenzen allowed a BABIP of .165 vs left-handed batters in the 2024 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .287 — 100th Percentile.
Michael Lorenzen has walked 3% of batters when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 92nd Percentile.
Michael Lorenzen has allowed an OBP of .378 (90 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .289 — fourth Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Reds are just 6-18 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 14-29 (.326) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 0-23 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .042.
The Reds were just 5-16 (.238) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Royals are just 6-62 (.088) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .193.
The Royals were just 4-50 (.074) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Royals are 59-21 (.738) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Reds (16th best runs scored) today.
The Royals are just 24-67 (.264) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .375.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .118 on pitches out of the zone since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .149.
The Reds are batting just .126 on pitches out of the zone since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
Reds hitters slugged just .151 on pitches out of the zone in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.
The Reds are batting just .223 against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters had an OBP of just .280 (2,958 PA’s) on the road in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .288 (7,063 PA’s) on the road since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Royals hitters are slugging just .316 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .376.
The Royals are batting .173 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .149.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers walked 613 of 6,310 batters (10%) in 2023 — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The longest HR allowed by the Royals pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 519.4 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
Royals pitchers picked-off 19 runners from first base in 2023 — best in MLB.
Royals pitchers had an ERA of 5.39 (674.0 IP) on the road in 2023 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Royals pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
More MLB Reading:
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