- The – are favorites vs the –
- Reds starting pitcher: Derek Law
- Tigers starting pitcher: Reese Olson
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Cincinnati Reds () visit Comerica Park to take on the Detroit Tigers () on Thursday, September 14, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Detroit.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Reds vs Tigers Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Reds are 76-71 against the spread (ATS), while the Tigers are 75-70 ATS.
Reds vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | O | ||
| Tigers | U |
Reds vs Tigers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 51.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Tigers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 30 of his last 48 games (+15.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- Hunter Renfroe has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 23 away games (+10.10 Units / 44% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 35 games (+9.40 Units / 16% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+9.35 Units / 45% ROI)
- Hunter Renfroe has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 16 away games (+9.15 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kerry Carpenter has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 36 games (+17.65 Units / 23% ROI)
- Kerry Carpenter has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+12.95 Units / 53% ROI)
- Spencer Torkelson has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 24 games at home (+11.80 Units / 49% ROI)
- Spencer Torkelson has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 29 games (+11.70 Units / 38% ROI)
- Kerry Carpenter has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 35 games (+11.00 Units / 25% ROI)
Tigers vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
Tigers vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
Tigers vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Tigers vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Reese Olson | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -130 |
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 58 away games (+25.15 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 90 of their last 146 games (+25.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 57 games (+19.40 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 56 away games (+15.75 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.09 Units / 50% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 58 games (+13.45 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 64 of their last 134 games (+8.80 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 38 games at home (+6.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.13 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 36 of their last 79 games (+3.43 Units / 4% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 90-57 against the Run Line (+24.15 Units / 12.39% ROI).
- 76-71 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.45 Units / 8.96% ROI
- 71-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.45 Units / -7.69% ROI
- 76-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.85 Units / -1.14% ROI
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 75-70 against the Run Line (-6.75 Units / -3.66% ROI).
- 66-79 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.2 Units / 2.67% ROI
- 68-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.9 Units / -6.75% ROI
- 71-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.7 Units / -1.71% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Derek Law has allowed an OBP of .355 (124 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: .230 — first Percentile.
Derek Law has allowed an OPS of .669 (124 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: .465 — first Percentile.
Derek Law has a strikeout rate of just 33% (41 SO in 124 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 46% — second Percentile.
Derek Law has allowed an OPS of just .533 (30 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — best among in MLB; League Avg: 1.072 — 100th Percentile.
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Reese Olson has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last four games dating back to August 22nd — Edward Cabrera has the longest active streak at 5.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 35% (44/126) against Reese Olson when he’s behind in the count this season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 96th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .083 (2-for-24) against Reese Olson — tied for 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .245 — 98th Percentile.
Reese Olson has allowed an OPS of just .410 (45 PA’s) — 4th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .699 — 95th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Reds are just 44-34 (.564) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Reds are 24-47 (.338) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .220.
The Reds are 13-57 (.186) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Reds are 57-1 (.983) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .947.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Tigers are 27-7 (.794) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .610.
The Tigers are just 20-122 (.141) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .208.
The Tigers are just 30-41 (.423) at home this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .520.
The Tigers are just 8-13 (.381) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .318 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .342.
The Reds are batting just .140 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .155.
Games involving the Reds went UNDER in 67% of their games (29.9% ROI) after a home loss this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Reds hitters have a swing rate of just 45% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .640 (8,583 PA’s) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .288 (8,583 PA’s) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .654 (11,296 PA’s) since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .720.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .297 (659 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 258 of 2,740 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 554 of 5,723 batters (10%) this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .292 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
The Tigers pitchers have allowed the 29th hardest ball in play hit (119.5 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 117.0).
Tigers pitchers have an ERA of 3.05 (410.0 IP) against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.31.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Tigers pitchers since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Tigers pitchers since the 2021 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Tigers vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Mason Englert (Tigers): Hip, D15
- Austin Meadows (Tigers): Anxiety, D60
- Andrew Vasquez (Tigers): Calf, D15
- Riley Greene (Tigers): Elbow, D10
- Tyler Alexander (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
- Freddy Pacheco (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Matthew Manning (Tigers): Foot, D15
- Matthew Boyd (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Alexander Young (Reds): COVID-19, D7
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew McLain (Reds): Oblique, D10
- Douglas Ashcraft (Reds): Toe, D15
- Stuart Fairchild (Reds): COVID-19, D7
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Curtis Casali (Reds): Foot, D10
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Kevin Newman (Reds): Oblique, D10
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
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