Reds vs White Sox Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Mar 3

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 03, 2023, 11:16 AM
  • The White Sox are -145 favorites vs the Reds
  • Reds starting pitcher: Luke Weaver, 0.00 ERA
  • White Sox starting pitcher: Dylan Cease

The Cincinnati Reds (+120) visit Camelback Ranch to take on the Chicago White Sox (-145) on Friday, March 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 3:05pm EST in Phoenix.

The White Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).

The Reds vs White Sox Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.

During Spring Training, the Reds are 2-2 against the spread (ATS), while the White Sox are 3-3 ATS.

Reds vs. White Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Reds+1.5 -165O 10.5 -110+120
White Sox -1.5 +140U 10.5 -110-145

Reds vs White Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the White Sox will win Friday‘s Spring Training matchup with 59.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and White Sox and up-to-date player injuries.


Bet now on Reds vs White Sox and all games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:

  • No trends found

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for White Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best White Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Danny Mendick has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games at home (+4.30 Units / 108% ROI)
  • Danny Mendick has hit the Hits Over in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 62% ROI)
  • AJ Pollock has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 5 of his last 7 games (+4.00 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Tim Anderson has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Danny Mendick has hit the Singles Over in 3 of his last 4 games at home (+2.25 Units / 54% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 24 games (+16.41 Units / 60% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 70 games (+13.65 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 73 of their last 134 games (+12.70 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.30 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 20 of their last 34 games (+6.30 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 84 of their last 162 games (+13.45 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 48 games at home (+8.45 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 95 games (+7.90 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+6.65 Units / 56% ROI)
  • The Chicago White Sox have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+4.00 Units / 50% ROI)

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 2-3 against the Run Line (-1 Units / -17.39% ROI).

  • 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.25 Units / 4.31% ROI
  • 3-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.75 Units / 13.64% ROI
  • 2-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.35 Units / -24.55% ROI

White Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the White Sox have gone 3-3 against the Run Line (+0.4 Units / 6.4% ROI).

  • 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.25 Units / -15.06% ROI
  • 2-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.3 Units / -35.38% ROI
  • 4-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.8 Units / 26.87% ROI

Luke Weaver has not allowed a home run in any of the last 29.1 innings he’s appeared — Jose Quintana has the longest active streak at 67.1.

Luke Weaver walked 1 of 45 batters (2%) over the last 30 days of the regular season (6 games) — tied for 12th best among among 250 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — 95th Percentile.

Hitters swung at 58% of Luke Weaver’s pitches (93/161) over the last 30 days of the regular season (6 games) — 6th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 48% — 98th Percentile.

Luke Weaver threw at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 79% (22/28) of opposing batters over the last 30 days of the regular season (6 games) — tied for 13th highest among among 250 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 95th Percentile.

White Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Dylan Cease walked 78 of 747 batters (10%) last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — second Percentile.

Right-handed batters batted just .163 (56-for-343) against Dylan Cease last season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — 97th Percentile.

Dylan Cease walked 54 of 480 batters (11%) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — second Percentile.

Dylan Cease allowed a slugging percentage of just .165 (65 Total Bases / 393 ABs) with two-strikes last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .240 — 100th Percentile.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the White Sox

The Reds are just 6-78 (.071) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Reds are just 6-176 (.033) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Reds are just 11-76 (.126) when allowing 5 or more runs last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .195.

The Reds are just 24-83 (.224) when scoring 4 or fewer runs last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.

White Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The White Sox are 12-5 (.706) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The White Sox are just 7-58 (.108) when allowing 5 or more runs last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .195.

The White Sox are 27-6 (.818) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The White Sox are just 7-41 (.146) when allowing 10 or more hits last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.

The Reds batted just .298 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

Reds hitters slugged just .366 against RHP last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .393.

Reds hitters have an OBP of .334 (6,050 PA’s) at home since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .320.

Reds hitters had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 36% against RHP in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.

White Sox hitters have an OPS of just .444 (277 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .652.

White Sox hitters pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play against LHP last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

White Sox hitters drew 39 walks in 771 PA’s (5%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

White Sox hitters have an OPS of just .476 (312 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .655.

Reds pitchers have walked 1,229 of 12,419 batters (10%) since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds pitchers walked 612 of 6,220 batters (10%) last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds pitchers have walked 1,442 of 14,544 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Opponents had a groundball batting average of .299 against Reds pitchers with runners on base last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

White Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

White Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the start of the 2021 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against White Sox pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

White Sox pitchers have an ERA of 3.72 (1388.0 IP) on the road since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.29.

White Sox vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Chicago White Sox – No Injuries Reported
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.