- The Braves are -250 favorites vs the Rockies
- Rockies starting pitcher: Kyle Freeland
- Braves starting pitcher: AJ Smith-Shawver
- Watch the game on BSSE
The Colorado Rockies (+200) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-250) on Thursday, June 15, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-125).
The Rockies vs Braves Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Rockies are 29-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 30-38 ATS.
Rockies vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rockies | +1.5 +105 | O 9.5 -115 | +200 |
| Braves | -1.5 -125 | U 9.5 -105 | -250 |
Rockies vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 86.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rockies and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rockies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rockies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ezequiel Tovar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 47 games (+13.95 Units / 24% ROI)
- Ryan McMahon has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 away games (+12.35 Units / 49% ROI)
- Ryan McMahon has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+12.30 Units / 53% ROI)
- Ezequiel Tovar has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+11.40 Units / 37% ROI)
- Mike Moustakas has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+9.20 Units / 92% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 34 of his last 49 games (+15.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 34 games (+15.05 Units / 26% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Under in 24 of his last 32 games (+14.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 34 games (+11.75 Units / 18% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+10.75 Units / 52% ROI)
Braves vs Rockies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Randal Grichuk | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Brenton Doyle | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Mike Moustakas | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Kevin Pillar | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
Braves vs Rockies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Randal Grichuk | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Brenton Doyle | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Mike Moustakas | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
| Kevin Pillar | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Braves vs Rockies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Randal Grichuk | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Brenton Doyle | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Mike Moustakas | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Kevin Pillar | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Braves vs Rockies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| AJ Smith-Shawver | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -110 |
| Kyle Freeland | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -120 |
Rockies Best Bets Today:
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 58 games (+11.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 51 games (+10.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 51 games (+9.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 47 games (+7.35 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 42 games (+6.85 Units / 14% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 59 games (+12.10 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 68 games (+9.20 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+4.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+3.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.70 Units / 32% ROI)
Rockies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rockies have gone 34-36 against the Run Line (-5 Units / -6.06% ROI).
- 29-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.25 Units / -3.08% ROI
- 29-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.15 Units / -20.83% ROI
- 41-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.6 Units / 12.54% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 30-38 against the Run Line (-8.35 Units / -10.46% ROI).
- 42-26 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.65 Units / 1.49% ROI
- 38-27 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.4 Units / 11.28% ROI
- 27-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.25 Units / -20.28% ROI
Rockies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .256 against Kyle Freeland on the first pitch of at-bats this season — sixth best among qualified SPs– 90th Percentile. Opponents batted .438 (49-for-112) against him on the first pitch of at-bats last season — second worst among qualified SPs– fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (97/573) against Kyle Freeland this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 15% (68/440) against Kyle Freeland this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — first Percentile.
Kyle Freeland has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (469/1,079) with two-strikes since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 97th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
AJ Smith-Shawver has a strike rate of just 57% (49/86) over the past seven days (1 games) — 2nd lowest in NL over the last week; League Avg: 64% — fourth Percentile.
AJ Smith-Shawver had a strike rate of just 57% (49/86) — 4th lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 65% — fourth Percentile.
AJ Smith-Shawver has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 7.2 innings pitched — Jovani Moran has the longest active streak at 18.2.
AJ Smith-Shawver has a strikeout rate of just 10% (2 SO in 20 PAs) over the past seven days (1 games) — 4th lowest in NL over the last week; League Avg: 23% — eighth Percentile.
Rockies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Rockies are just 48-41 (.539) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.
The Rockies are just 0-38 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .054.
The Rockies are just 5-15 (.250) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .427.
The Rockies are just 14-26 (.350) after a loss this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .485.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Rockies
The Braves are 35-23 (.603) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .301.
The Braves are 14-6 (.700) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 4-1 (.800) after a win as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .450.
The Braves are 10-5 (.667) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .387.
Rockies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rockies have an average HR distance of 412.9 feet since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 398.5.
The Rockies have won just 50% of road games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
The Rockies are batting .281 at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Rockies hitters have an OBP of .343 (4,412 PA’s) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .540 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .422.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .892 (661 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .746.
Braves hitters are slugging .301 with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Braves hitters are slugging .450 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Rockies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 21% against Rockies pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Rockies pitchers have walked 70 of 611 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rockies pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Rockies pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 18% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 28% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers have won 60% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves vs. Rockies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jesse Chavez (Braves): Shin, D15
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D60
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Sean Bouchard (Rockies): Biceps, D60
- Kristopher Bryant (Rockies): Heel, D10
- Charles Blackmon (Rockies): Hand, D10
- Antonio Senzatela (Rockies): Elbow, D60
- Ryan Feltner (Rockies): Skull, D60
- Christopher Cron (Rockies): Back, D10
- Germán Márquez (Rockies): Elbow, D60
- Brendan Rodgers (Rockies): Shoulder, D60
- Tyler Kinley (Rockies): Elbow, D60
- Lucas Gilbreath (Rockies): Elbow, D60
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