- The Mariners are -200 favorites vs the Rockies
- Rockies starting pitcher: Kyle Freeland, 9.00 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: George Kirby
- Watch the game on ROOT Sports NW
The Colorado Rockies (+165) visit Peoria Sports Complex to take on the Seattle Mariners (-200) on Saturday, March 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 3:10pm EST in Peoria.
The Mariners are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Rockies vs Mariners Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Rockies are 1-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 2-4 ATS.
Rockies vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rockies | +1.5 -110 | O 10 -110 | +165 |
| Mariners | -1.5 -110 | U 10 -110 | -200 |
Rockies vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Saturday‘s Spring Training matchup with 61.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rockies and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rockies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rockies Player Prop Bets Today:
- C.J. Cron has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+2.00 Units / 47% ROI)
- Brendan Rodgers has hit the Runs Over in 1 of his last 3 games (+0.05 Units / 2% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Mitch Haniger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.40 Units / 54% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Taylor Trammell has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+2.75 Units / 92% ROI)
- Adam Frazier has hit the Runs Over in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+2.55 Units / 85% ROI)
Rockies Best Bets Today:
- The Colorado Rockies have covered the Run Line in 62 of their last 109 games (+13.40 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 22 away games (+9.30 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 39 of their last 71 games (+7.65 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 21 away games (+7.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+5.05 Units / 101% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 64 games at home (+18.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 99 games (+14.05 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 37 of their last 64 games (+12.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 61 games at home (+11.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 55 of their last 99 games (+6.25 Units / 5% ROI)
Rockies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rockies have gone 1-3 against the Run Line (-3.55 Units / -55.91% ROI).
- 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -50% ROI
- 1-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.25 Units / -51.72% ROI
- 3-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.9 Units / 42.7% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 2-4 against the Run Line (-3.1 Units / -36.9% ROI).
- 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.15 Units / -15.33% ROI
- 2-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.6 Units / -45.28% ROI
- 5-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.9 Units / 38.67% ROI
Rockies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Freeland threw at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 56% (279/503) of opposing batters last season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 67% — second Percentile.
Opponents batted .438 (49-for-112) against Kyle Freeland on the first pitch of at-bats last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .338 — fourth Percentile.
Kyle Freeland allowed an OBP of .342 (765 PA’s) last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — second Percentile.
27 of Kyle Freeland’s breaking pitch strikeouts were backdoor last season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .381 (67 GB hits out of 176 GBs) against George Kirby last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .233 — 0 Percentile.
George Kirby allowed a BABIP of .387 against right-handed batters last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .295 — second Percentile.
Opponents had a line drive rate of just 15% (11/71) versus George Kirby with runners in scoring position last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 97th Percentile.
63% of George Kirby’s strikeouts came on 95+ MPH fastballs last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.
Rockies Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Rockies are just 27-54 (.333) on the road last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Rockies are just 11-15 (.423) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rockies are 53-4 (.930) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Rockies are just 15-33 (.312) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Rockies
The Mariners are 41-11 (.788) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Mariners are 9-59 (.132) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Mariners are 69-1 (.986) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Mariners are 62-10 (.861) when scoring 5 or more runs last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
Rockies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rockies are batting .281 at home since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Rockies hitters are slugging just .344 on the road since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .395.
The Rockies have won just 42% of road games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
The Rockies are batting .281 at home since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .168 on pitches out of the zone since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Mariners are batting just .310 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.
The Mariners are batting just .305 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
The Mariners are batting just .129 on pitches out of the zone since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .153.
Rockies Pitching Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against the Rockies pitchers since the start of the 2021 season is 407.8 feet — highest in MLB; League Avg: 399.3
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Rockies pitchers last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The average home run distance against the Rockies pitchers since the start of 2020 is 408.0 feet — highest in MLB; League Avg: 399.5
Rockies pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 8% of innings played last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 5%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Mariners pitchers have won 36% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mariners vs. Rockies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Seattle Mariners – No Injuries Reported
- Colorado Rockies – No Injuries Reported
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