- The Marlins are -250 favorites vs the Rockies
- Rockies starting pitcher: Peter Lambert
- Marlins starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Colorado Rockies (+190) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-250) on Friday, July 21, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).
The Rockies vs Marlins Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Rockies are 37-59 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 47-51 ATS.
Rockies vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rockies | +1.5 +100 | O 8 +100 | +190 |
| Marlins | -1.5 -120 | U 8 -120 | -250 |
Rockies vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 83.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rockies and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rockies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rockies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ezequiel Tovar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 27 of his last 41 games (+11.55 Units / 23% ROI)
- Elias Diaz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.35 Units / 85% ROI)
- Nolan Jones has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 away games (+9.00 Units / 59% ROI)
- Elias Diaz has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Coco Montes has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 48% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.90 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 8 games (+9.50 Units / 99% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+8.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+8.85 Units / 18% ROI)
Marlins vs Rockies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Randal Grichuk | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| C.J. Cron | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Brenton Doyle | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
Marlins vs Rockies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Randal Grichuk | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| C.J. Cron | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Brenton Doyle | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -110 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Marlins vs Rockies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Randal Grichuk | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| C.J. Cron | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Brenton Doyle | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Marlins vs Rockies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Braxton Garrett | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +115 |
Rockies Best Bets Today:
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 84 games (+15.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 84 games (+8.55 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+3.45 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+3.35 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.50 Units / 41% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 65 games (+14.15 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 27 games at home (+11.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+8.35 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games at home (+8.35 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+7.80 Units / 33% ROI)
Rockies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rockies have gone 44-52 against the Run Line (-11.7 Units / -10.5% ROI).
- 37-59 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.4 Units / -8.46% ROI
- 40-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.65 Units / -20.28% ROI
- 56-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.05 Units / 12.48% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 47-51 against the Run Line (-13.25 Units / -10.2% ROI).
- 53-45 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.25 Units / 6.02% ROI
- 46-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.55 Units / -6.09% ROI
- 48-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.75 Units / -2.54% ROI
Rockies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Freeland has allowed a slugging percentage of .537 (66 Total Bases / 123 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .308 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .490 (25-for-51) against Kyle Freeland’s changeup this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .239 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (131/789) against Kyle Freeland this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.
Kyle Freeland has a strikeout rate of just 11% (8 SO in 74 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — third Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Braxton Garrett has walked 16 of 399 batters (4%) this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 95th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has an average fastball velocity of just 89.3 MPH this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 93.7 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .196 (11-for-56) against Braxton Garrett on low fastballs this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .255 — 84th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has a strike rate of 68% (770/1,128) against right-handed batters this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 91st Percentile.
Rockies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Rockies are just 34-18 (.654) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Rockies are just 6-23 (.207) after a road loss this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .466.
The Rockies are just 24-9 (.727) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .855.
The Rockies are just 12-23 (.343) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Rockies
The Marlins are 11-116 (.087) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .047.
The Marlins are 5-38 (.116) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Marlins are just 12-59 (.169) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Marlins are 32-21 (.604) after a win this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
Rockies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rockies have an average HR distance of 412.1 feet since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 398.7.
The Rockies have won just 47% of road games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
The Rockies have won just 49% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
The Rockies are batting .277 at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Marlins are batting .312 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 40% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 40% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have 54 extra-base hits out of 219 total hits (just 25%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Rockies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 21% against Rockies pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Rockies pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Rockies pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Rockies pitchers have an ERA of 5.60 (1184.0 IP) at home since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.96.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Marlins vs. Rockies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D15
- Andrew Nardi (Marlins): Triceps, D15
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Oblique, D10
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Jonathan Davis (Marlins): Knee, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Sean Bouchard (Rockies): Biceps, D60
- Charles Blackmon (Rockies): Hand, D10
- Antonio Senzatela (Rockies): Elbow, D60
- Ryan Feltner (Rockies): Skull, D60
- Matthew Carasiti (Rockies): Shoulder, D15
- Ryan Rolison (Rockies): Undisclosed, D60
- Germán Márquez (Rockies): Elbow, D60
- Brendan Rodgers (Rockies): Shoulder, D60
- Tyler Kinley (Rockies): Elbow, D60
- Lucas Gilbreath (Rockies): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Freeland (Rockies): Shoulder, D15
- Nicolaus Mears (Rockies): Oblique, D15
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