Rockies vs Mets Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 27

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 27, 2022, 9:29 AM
  • The Mets (81-46) are -250 favorites vs the Rockies (54-73)
  • Rockies starting pitcher: Kyle Freeland (7-8), 4.92 ERA
  • Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson (6-3), 3.44 ERA
  • Watch the game on SNY

The Colorado Rockies (+200) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-250) on Saturday, August 27, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).

The Rockies vs Mets Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Rockies are 53-71 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 68-56 ATS.

Rockies vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Rockies+1.5 +100O 8.5 -105+200
Mets -1.5 -120U 8.5 -115-250

Rockies vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s matchup with 68.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rockies and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Mets vs Rockies and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Rockies Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rockies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • German Marquez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+13.00 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Randal Grichuk has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.90 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Wynton Bernard has hit the Runs Over in his last 7 games (+9.10 Units / 130% ROI)
  • Elehuris Montero has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.00 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Kyle Freeland has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.95 Units / 49% ROI)

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 28 games (+16.95 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 45 games (+16.15 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 29 games at home (+13.65 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 28 games (+12.40 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 37 games (+11.30 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 21 of their last 36 games (+4.90 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 55 games at home (+27.92 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 39 of their last 55 games at home (+17.00 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 42 games at home (+15.30 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+9.15 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+8.60 Units / 37% ROI)

Rockies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Rockies have gone 66-58 against the Run Line (+1.3 Units / 0.85% ROI).

  • 53-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.65 Units / -4.24% ROI
  • 60-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.35 Units / -2.44% ROI
  • 57-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.35 Units / -6.88% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Rockies have gone 68-56 against the Run Line (+13.35 Units / 8.76% ROI).

  • 80-44 when betting on the Moneyline for +21.7 Units / 11.25% ROI
  • 63-54 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.35 Units / 2.44% ROI
  • 54-63 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.8 Units / -10.89% ROI

20 of Kyle Freeland’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — 2nd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 98th Percentile.

Kyle Freeland has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 53% (208/395) of opposing batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — first Percentile.

Kyle Freeland has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 51% (155/303) of right-handed hitters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 67% — first Percentile.

Kyle Freeland has a strikeout rate of just 5% (7 SO in 133 PAs) in PAs ending on inside fastballs this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 15% — third Percentile.

David Peterson: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

David Peterson has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 50% (113/228) of right-handed hitters this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: 66% — 0 Percentile.

David Peterson has thrown his changeup for a strike just 45% (110/245) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.

David Peterson has a strike rate of just 60% (1,209/2,012) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.

David Peterson has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 52% (151/290) of opposing batters this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 0 Percentile.

Rockies Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Rockies are just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Rockies are just 12-31 (.279) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Rockies are just 12-34 (.261) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .334.

The Rockies are just 18-41 (.305) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .471.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Rockies

The Mets are 67-20 (.770) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

The Mets are 70-5 (.933) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .886.

The Mets are 70-3 (.959) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .916.

The Mets are just 7-9 (.438) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Rockies are batting .283 at home since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Rockies have won just 40% of road games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.

Rockies hitters have an OBP of .348 (2,602 PA’s) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .317.

The Rockies are batting .311 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.

The Mets have scored first in 72% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Mets hitters are slugging .857 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days (14 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .527.

Mets hitters have an OBP of .335 (3,377 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .311.

Mets hitters have just 667 strikeouts in 3,377 PA’s (20%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The longest HR allowed by the Rockies pitchers this season traveled 496.0 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 459.6

Rockies pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Rockies pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 9% of innings played this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.

Rockies pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 28% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Mets pitchers have walked 158 of 2,516 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Mets pitchers have walked 68 of 1,131 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Mets pitchers have walked 821 of 10,473 batters (8%) since the start of last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Mets vs. Rockies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Eduardo Escobar (Mets): Oblique, D10
  • Luis Guillorme (Mets): Groin, D10
  • Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Side, D15
  • Andrew Smith (Mets): Back, D15
  • Stephen Nogosek (Mets): Oblique, D15
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Antonio Senzatela (Rockies): ACL, D15
  • Scott Oberg (Rockies): Arm, D60
  • Kristopher Bryant (Rockies): Foot, D10
  • Tyler Kinley (Rockies): Elbow, D60
  • Alexander Colomé (Rockies): Elbow, D15
  • Helcris Olivarez (Rockies): Shoulder, D60
  • Yonathan Daza (Rockies): Shoulder, D10
  • Ryan Rolison (Rockies): Shoulder, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.