- The Mets (82-46) are -350 favorites vs the Rockies (54-74)
- Rockies starting pitcher: Germán Márquez (6-10), 5.22 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Maxwell Scherzer (9-3), 2.33 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Colorado Rockies (+275) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-350) on Sunday, August 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (-105).
The Rockies vs Mets Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Rockies are 53-72 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 69-56 ATS.
Rockies vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rockies | +2.5 -115 | O 7.5 -120 | +275 |
| Mets | -2.5 -105 | U 7.5 +100 | -350 |
Rockies vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Sunday‘s matchup with 61.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rockies and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Rockies Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rockies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- German Marquez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+13.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Randal Grichuk has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- Wynton Bernard has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+8.10 Units / 101% ROI)
- Elias Diaz has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 69% ROI)
- Brendan Rodgers has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 26 away games (+7.95 Units / 18% ROI)
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 29 games (+17.95 Units / 27% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 46 games (+13.75 Units / 14% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 30 games at home (+12.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 42 games at home (+12.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 29 games (+11.40 Units / 30% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Rockies Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 22 of their last 37 games (+5.90 Units / 15% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 74 of their last 128 games (+15.62 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 29 of their last 48 games (+9.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+6.80 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+6.55 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.75 Units / 48% ROI)
Rockies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rockies have gone 66-59 against the Run Line (+0.3 Units / 0.2% ROI).
- 53-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.65 Units / -4.95% ROI
- 60-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.45 Units / -3.22% ROI
- 58-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.35 Units / -6.09% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rockies have gone 69-56 against the Run Line (+14.35 Units / 9.35% ROI).
- 81-44 when betting on the Moneyline for +22.7 Units / 11.61% ROI
- 63-55 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.25 Units / 1.63% ROI
- 55-63 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.8 Units / -10.08% ROI
Germán Márquez: Rockies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
German Marquez has allowed a slugging percentage of .698 (67 Total Bases / 96 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .410 — sixth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .438 (42-for-96) against German Marquez on low fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .261 — second Percentile.
German Marquez has a strikeout rate of just 10% (9 SO in 88 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — sixth Percentile.
German Marquez has allowed an OPS of .821 (606 PA’s) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .667 — first Percentile.
Maxwell Scherzer: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Scherzer has walked 16 of 590 right-handed batters (3%) since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 143 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Max Scherzer has allowed an OBP of just .222 (589 PA’s) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 143 total IP; League Avg: .305 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .169 (45-for-266) against Max Scherzer when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 143 total IP; League Avg: .259 — 100th Percentile.
Max Scherzer has allowed an OBP of just .177 (683 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 143 total IP; League Avg: .235 — 97th Percentile.
Rockies Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Rockies are just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rockies are just 12-31 (.279) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rockies are just 18-42 (.300) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .471.
The Rockies are 37-3 (.925) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .885.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Rockies
The Mets are 43-19 (.694) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .529.
The Mets are 39-27 (.591) on the road this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .471.
The Mets are 68-20 (.773) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .703.
The Mets are 37-8 (.822) when scoring in the first inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .665.
Rockies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rockies are batting .311 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Rockies have won just 40% of road games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
The Rockies are batting .286 at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Rockies hitters have just 308 strikeouts in 1,611 PA’s (19%) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have scored first in 73% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Mets hitters are slugging just .380 against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Mets hitters are slugging .929 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days (14 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .511.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .346 (1,127 PA’s) when leading off an inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
Rockies Pitching Stats & Trends
Rockies pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Rockies pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 9% of innings played this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
The longest HR allowed by the Rockies pitchers this season traveled 496.0 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 459.6
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Rockies pitchers this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have walked 821 of 10,505 batters (8%) since the start of last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 158 of 2,525 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets vs. Rockies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Luis Guillorme (Mets): Groin, D10
- Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Side, D15
- Andrew Smith (Mets): Back, D15
- Stephen Nogosek (Mets): Oblique, D15
- Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Antonio Senzatela (Rockies): ACL, D15
- Scott Oberg (Rockies): Arm, D60
- Kristopher Bryant (Rockies): Foot, D10
- Tyler Kinley (Rockies): Elbow, D60
- Alexander Colomé (Rockies): Elbow, D15
- Helcris Olivarez (Rockies): Shoulder, D60
- Yonathan Daza (Rockies): Shoulder, D10
- Ryan Rolison (Rockies): Shoulder, D60
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