- The Reds are -235 favorites vs the Rockies
- Rockies vs Reds Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Rockies / Reds TV Channel: FDOH | ROTV
The Colorado Rockies (+195) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-235) on Friday, July 11, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH, OH.
This season, the Rockies are 21-72 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 49-44 ATS.
Rockies vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Rockies starting pitcher: German Marquez 3-10, 5.81 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Chase Burns 0-1, 7.85 ERA
Rockies vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rockies | +1.5 -105 | O 9.5 -118 | +195 |
| Reds | -1.5 -115 | U 9.5 -102 | -235 |
Rockies vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Friday‘s MLB game with 63.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rockies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rockies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Michael Toglia has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+15.05 Units / 34% ROI)
- Ryan McMahon has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.30 Units / 47% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+7.00 Units / 175% ROI)
- Jordan Beck has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+6.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+6.55 Units / 82% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Walks Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+10.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+8.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- Austin Hays has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.50 Units / 45% ROI)
- Austin Hays has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+8.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+7.90 Units / 47% ROI)
Rockies Best Bets Today:
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 33 of their last 46 away games (+18.30 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 58 of their last 93 games (+18.02 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 47 away games (+8.40 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 16 away games (+5.75 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 34 games (+5.30 Units / 14% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 71 games (+12.25 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 26 games at home (+6.90 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 47 of their last 84 games (+5.95 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 26 games at home (+5.80 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.65 Units / 46% ROI)
Rockies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rockies are 36-57 against the Run Line (-18.9 Units / -18.2% ROI).
- 21-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -35.85 Units / -38.12% ROI
- 39-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.8 Units / -16.42% ROI
- 51-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.25 Units / 8.06% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 49-44 against the Run Line (-1.83 Units / -1.45% ROI).
- 48-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.95 Units / -0.85% ROI
- 39-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.64 Units / -17.14% ROI
- 52-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.2 Units / 8.85% ROI
Reds vs Rockies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Benson (CIN) | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -350 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Hunter Goodman (COL) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
| Michael Toglia (COL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
Reds vs Rockies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Matt McLain (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Gavin Lux (CIN) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jordan Beck (COL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Reds vs Rockies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -135 |
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Will Benson (CIN) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Hunter Goodman (COL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Matt McLain (CIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Reds vs Rockies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| German Marquez (COL) | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -135 |
Rockies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 35% (50/143) against German Marquez this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Hitters leading off the inning are hitting .391 (34-for-87) against German Marquez this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .250 — second Percentile.
German Marquez has allowed a slugging percentage of .372 (55 Total Bases / 148 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .261 — fourth Percentile.
German Marquez has thrown his curveball 53% of the time (196/373) with two-strikes this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 97th Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chase Burns has walked 21% of batters this month (1 game) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Chase Burns has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 35% (6/17) of opposing batters this month (1 game) — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Chase Burns has a strike rate of just 57% (52/91) this month (1 game) — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.
Chase Burns has allowed a slugging percentage of just .133 (2 Total Bases / 15 ABs) this month (1 game) — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: .411 — 97th Percentile.
Rockies Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Rockies are just 15-56 (.211) after a loss this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Rockies are just 19-61 (.238) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Rockies are just 11-36 (.234) on the road this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .450.
The Rockies are just 68-10 (.861) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .951.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Rockies
The Reds were just 5-16 (.238) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 6-100 (.057) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .097.
The Reds are just 45-4 (.918) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .956.
The Reds are just 8-21 (.276) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Rockies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rockies have a winning percentage of just 23% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Rockies have a winning percentage of just 22% at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
The Rockies have a winning percentage of just 27% on the road since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Rockies have won just 41% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 73%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters slugged just .151 on pitches out of the zone in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.
The Reds are batting just .224 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Reds hitters have a swing rate of just 46% this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Reds hitters have chased 35% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Rockies Pitching Stats & Trends
Rockies pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Rockies pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Rockies pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 35% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Rockies pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 36% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Batters facing the Reds pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 54% of the time this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 10% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
More MLB Reading:
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