- The Astros (52-27) are -250 favorites vs the Royals (29-49)
- Royals starting pitcher: Donald Greinke (2-4), 4.38 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Luis Garcia (6-5), 3.53 ERA
- Watch the game on SportsNet SW
The Kansas City Royals (+200) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-250) on Tuesday, July 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).
The Royals vs Astros Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Royals are 29-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 42-37 ATS.
Royals vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 +100 | O 8 +100 | +200 |
| Astros | -1.5 -120 | U 8 -120 | -250 |
Royals vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 55.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 17 away games (+11.95 Units / 44% ROI)
- Whit Merrifield has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 27 away games (+10.30 Units / 35% ROI)
- Andrew Benintendi has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+9.90 Units / 44% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 28 away games (+8.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- Whit Merrifield has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 33 away games (+8.35 Units / 13% ROI)
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+13.25 Units / 49% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 22 games at home (+13.20 Units / 32% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 22 games at home (+10.05 Units / 46% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 19 games at home (+9.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 26 games (+8.85 Units / 34% ROI)
Astros vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Chas McCormick | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jake Meyers | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
Astros vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Chas McCormick | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Jake Meyers | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Jeremy Pena | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
Astros vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
| Chas McCormick | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jake Meyers | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
Astros vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Garcia | 5.5 -130 | 5.5 -110 |
| Zack Greinke | 3.5 +115 | 3.5 -160 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Royals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 24 games (+10.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 11 away games (+7.10 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 away games (+6.70 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 5 games (+6.05 Units / 119% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 away games (+5.00 Units / 43% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 77 games (+18.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 63 games (+18.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 43 of their last 66 games (+17.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 60 games (+12.05 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 12 of their last 14 games at home (+11.00 Units / 74% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 34-44 against the Run Line (-22.15 Units / -20.69% ROI).
- 29-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.1 Units / -20.47% ROI
- 38-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.2 Units / -1.41% ROI
- 36-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.2 Units / -7.13% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 42-37 against the Run Line (+7.7 Units / 8.44% ROI).
- 52-27 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.75 Units / 11.12% ROI
- 27-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -24.85 Units / -28.78% ROI
- 48-27 when betting on the total runs Under for +18.25 Units / 20.82% ROI
Donald Greinke: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Greinke has a strikeout rate of just 25% (32 SO in 127 PAs) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.
Zack Greinke has a strikeout rate of just 12% (32 SO in 268 PAs) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 35% (27/77) against Zack Greinke on inside fastballs since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 0 Percentile.
Zack Greinke has thrown low pitches 69% of the time (708/1,019) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 99th Percentile.
Luis Garcia: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
39 of Luis Garcia’s 80 strikeouts (49%) have come on cutters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 4% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Garcia has allowed an OBP of just .145 (62 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: .311 — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 40% of Luis Garcia’s non-fastballs (448/1,117) since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 48% — second Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .190 (84-for-442) against Luis Garcia since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 97th Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Royals are just 0-24 (.000) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .328.
The Royals are just 1-40 (.024) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .107.
The Royals are just 4-36 (.100) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.
The Royals are just 23-6 (.793) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .893.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Astros are 29-3 (.906) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
The Astros are 48-7 (.873) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Astros are 18-4 (.818) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Astros are 29-2 (.935) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have just 478 strikeouts in 2,534 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals hitters have just 150 strikeouts in 841 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .976 (1,753 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.089.
The Royals are batting just .229 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 539 strikeouts in 2,922 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have a groundball batting average of just .189 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .235.
Astros hitters have just 669 strikeouts in 3,582 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% versus the heart of the order this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals pitchers have walked 307 of 3,032 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals pitchers have walked 898 of 9,159 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the start of last season is 393.8 feet — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.9
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% over the past seven days (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.22 (374.2 IP) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.
Astros pitchers have allowed a slugging percentage of just .334 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .395.
Astros vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D10
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
- Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
- Parker Mushinski (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D15
- Salvador Perez (Royals): Thumb, D10
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Blister, D15
- Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
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