- The Astros (53-28) are -350 favorites vs the Royals (30-50)
- Royals starting pitcher: Kristofer Bubic (1-5), 7.06 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Justin Verlander (10-3), 2.03 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Kansas City Royals (+280) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-350) on Thursday, July 7, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+110).
The Royals vs Astros Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Royals are 30-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 43-38 ATS.
Royals vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +2.5 -145 | O 7.5 -105 | +280 |
| Astros | -2.5 +110 | U 7.5 -115 | -350 |
Royals vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Thursday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Whit Merrifield has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 29 away games (+12.95 Units / 41% ROI)
- Andrew Benintendi has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+11.90 Units / 43% ROI)
- Andrew Benintendi has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+9.40 Units / 117% ROI)
- Andrew Benintendi has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+7.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- Whit Merrifield has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 35 away games (+6.35 Units / 10% ROI)
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 28 games (+9.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 30 games (+6.00 Units / 9% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Singles Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.10 Units / 63% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Under in 4 of his last 6 games (+3.60 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Total Bases Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.15 Units / 25% ROI)
Astros vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jake Meyers | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -450 |
| Martin Maldonado | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Astros vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jake Meyers | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Martin Maldonado | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -140 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
Astros vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jake Meyers | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Martin Maldonado | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
Astros vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kris Bubic | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +120 |
| Kris Bubic | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -155 |
| Justin Verlander | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Royals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 26 games (+11.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 13 away games (+7.25 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 68 games (+7.15 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games (+7.10 Units / 100% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 away games (+6.35 Units / 47% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 65 games (+16.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 44 of their last 68 games (+16.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 79 games (+16.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 14 of their last 16 games at home (+13.00 Units / 77% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 62 games (+11.70 Units / 16% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 35-45 against the Run Line (-22 Units / -20.17% ROI).
- 30-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.75 Units / -18.41% ROI
- 40-36 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.8 Units / 0.92% ROI
- 36-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.35 Units / -9.38% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 43-38 against the Run Line (+7.35 Units / 7.83% ROI).
- 53-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +12 Units / 9.3% ROI
- 29-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -22.85 Units / -25.79% ROI
- 48-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +16.1 Units / 17.93% ROI
Kristofer Bubic: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kris Bubic has allowed an OPS of 1.116 (289 PA’s) versus the top of the order since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: .769 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 20% (87/438) against Kris Bubic this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 0 Percentile.
Kris Bubic has allowed an OBP of .476 (82 PA’s) versus the top of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .322 — 0 Percentile.
Kris Bubic has allowed an OBP of .436 (289 PA’s) versus the top of the order since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: .327 — 0 Percentile.
Justin Verlander: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Verlander has allowed an OBP of just .219 (169 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .298 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .183 (64-for-349) against Justin Verlander this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — 95th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has a strike rate of 74% (323/437) in two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed an OBP of just .229 (371 PA’s) this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .294 — 97th Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Royals are just 0-24 (.000) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .331.
The Royals are just 4-37 (.098) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .203.
The Royals are just 23-3 (.885) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .918.
The Royals are just 16-25 (.390) on the road this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .484.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Astros are 30-3 (.909) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
The Astros are 48-7 (.873) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Astros are 42-3 (.933) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .918.
The Astros are 8-3 (.727) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have just 478 strikeouts in 2,534 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Royals have won just 36% of home games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 76%.
Royals hitters have put 40% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Royals hitters have just 150 strikeouts in 841 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have an OBP of .268 (4,787 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Astros hitters have just 1,284 strikeouts in 6,393 PA’s (20%) against RHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 277 strikeouts in 1,279 PA’s (22%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Astros hitters have just 539 strikeouts in 2,922 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% versus the heart of the order this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 60% of opposing batters this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 63%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% with runners in scoring position this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .212 against Astros pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 34% over the past seven days (7 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D10
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
- Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
- Parker Mushinski (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Jeremy Peña (Astros): Health and safety protocols, Day-to-Day
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D15
- Salvador Perez (Royals): Thumb, D10
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Blister, D15
- Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Robert Witt Jr. (Royals): Hand, Day-to-Day
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