Royals vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, May 12

Houston Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena pops out during the first inning of a spring training baseball game against the New York Mets Thursday, Feb. 27, 2025, in Port St. Lucie, Fla.
(AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)
  • The Royals are +100 favorites vs the Astros
  • Royals vs Astros Over / Under today: 8 Runs
  • Royals / Astros TV Channel: SCHN | FDKC

The Kansas City Royals (+100) visit Daikin Park to take on the Houston Astros (-120) on Monday, May 12, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston, TX.

This season, the Royals are 24-17 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 21-17 ATS.

Royals vs Astros Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Royals starting pitcher: Michael Wacha 2-4, 2.98 ERA
  • Astros starting pitcher: Ryan Gusto 3-1, 2.93 ERA

Royals vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Royals-1.5 +165O 8 -102+100
Astros +1.5 -200U 8 -118-120

Royals vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Monday‘s MLB game with 51.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 away games (+12.90 Units / 258% ROI)
  • Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+9.15 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 20 away games (+7.90 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Salvador Perez has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 25 away games (+6.80 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Singles Under in his last 4 away games (+5.35 Units / 134% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 25 games (+4.90 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+3.85 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Jose Altuve has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+3.70 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 25 games (+3.45 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Jose Altuve has hit the Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 games at home (+3.25 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 18 away games (+9.80 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 away games (+7.20 Units / 101% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 away games (+6.75 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 60% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.50 Units / 44% ROI)
  • No trends found

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Royals are 20-21 against the Run Line (-8.1 Units / -13.89% ROI).

  • 24-17 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.75 Units / 14.54% ROI
  • 14-26 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.2 Units / -31.73% ROI
  • 26-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.65 Units / 23.43% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Astros are 21-17 against the Run Line (+5.85 Units / 12.1% ROI).

  • 19-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.25 Units / -10.55% ROI
  • 17-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.65 Units / -8.82% ROI
  • 19-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.1 Units / 0.24% ROI

Astros vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) 0.5 +360 0.5 -500
Christian Walker (HOU) 0.5 +360 0.5 -500
Salvador Perez (KC) 0.5 +400 0.5 -550
Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) 0.5 +475 0.5 -650
Zach Dezenzo (HOU) 0.5 +550 0.5 -800

Astros vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Maikel Garcia (KC) 0.5 -225 0.5 +170
Christian Walker (HOU) 0.5 -225 0.5 +170
Salvador Perez (KC) 0.5 -220 0.5 +165
Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) 0.5 -220 0.5 +170
Jonathan India (KC) 0.5 -185 0.5 +135

Astros vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) 0.5 +135 0.5 -175
Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) 0.5 +140 0.5 -185
Salvador Perez (KC) 0.5 +145 0.5 -190
Christian Walker (HOU) 0.5 +150 0.5 -200
Yainer Diaz (HOU) 0.5 +165 0.5 -220

Astros vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ryan Gusto (HOU) 3.5 -165 3.5 +125
Michael Wacha (KC) 4.5 +105 4.5 -140

Michael Wacha threw his breaking pitches for a strike just 47% (212/452) of the time in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .149 (10-for-67) against Michael Wacha when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — 96th Percentile.

Hitters swung at 28% of Michael Wacha’s breaking pitches (128/452) in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 0 Percentile.

Michael Wacha has allowed a slugging percentage of just .194 (13 Total Bases / 67 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .375 — 97th Percentile.

Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

71% of Ryan Gusto’s fastball strikeouts are located away this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.

82% of Ryan Gusto’s fastball strikeouts are elevatedthis season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: 51% — 97th Percentile.

Ryan Gusto has a strikeout rate of 34% (14 SO in 41 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 11th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 90th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .080 (2-for-25) against Ryan Gusto on fastballs away this season — tied for 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: .239 — 97th Percentile.

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Royals are just 5-60 (.077) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .190.

The Royals are just 17-85 (.167) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .299.

The Royals were just 4-50 (.074) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.

The Royals are just 2-8 (.200) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Astros (10th best runs scored) today.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

The Astros were just 0-56 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.

The Astros are just 1-74 (.013) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.

The Astros are 13-6 (.684) after a loss this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .497.

The Astros are 150-28 (.843) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .796.

Royals hitters had an OBP of just .280 (2,958 PA’s) on the road in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.

The Royals won only 28% of their road games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

Royals hitters have struck out in just 19% of it’s PA’s against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Royals hitters have an OBP of just .287 (6,720 PA’s) on the road since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .312.

Astros hitters averaged just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.

Astros hitters have an OBP of .429 (170 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .326.

Astros hitters averaged just 3.66 pitches per plate appearance in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.

Astros hitters have put just 29% of balls in play to the right side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.

Royals pitchers have walked 5% of batters over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The longest HR allowed by the Royals pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 519.4 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4

Royals pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Royals pitchers have walked 4% of batters this month (11 game{NumGameSuffix}) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Astros pitchers have walked 13% of batters this month (9 game{NumGameSuffix}) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

More MLB Reading:


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.