- The Brewers are -160 favorites vs the Royals
- Royals starting pitcher: Donald Greinke
- Brewers starting pitcher: Adrian Houser
- Watch the game on BSWI
The Kansas City Royals (+135) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-160) on Saturday, May 13, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Royals vs Brewers Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Royals are 12-28 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 18-20 ATS.
Royals vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -145 | O 9 -110 | +135 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +120 | U 9 -110 | -160 |
Royals vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 72.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nick Pratto has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+11.55 Units / 63% ROI)
- Nick Pratto has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+10.50 Units / 81% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+10.15 Units / 72% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 24 games (+8.75 Units / 31% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 32 games (+8.45 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Joey Wiemer has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 29 games (+10.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+10.20 Units / 28% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 29 games (+9.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 29 games (+8.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.90 Units / 62% ROI)
Brewers vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Freddy Fermin | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Matt Duffy | 0.5 +1150 | 0.5 |
| Jackie Bradley Jr. | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
Brewers vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +100 |
| Freddy Fermin | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Matt Duffy | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jackie Bradley Jr. | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
Brewers vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Freddy Fermin | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Matt Duffy | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jackie Bradley Jr. | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Brewers vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zack Greinke | 3.5 -105 | 3.5 -125 |
| Adrian Houser | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -165 |
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.20 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 away games (+3.75 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+3.35 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.40 Units / 39% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games at home (+4.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 19 games at home (+3.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 19 games at home (+3.20 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 37 games (+3.20 Units / 7% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 15-25 against the Run Line (-13.65 Units / -27.83% ROI).
- 12-28 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.1 Units / -31.64% ROI
- 19-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.95 Units / -4.42% ROI
- 19-19 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.9 Units / -4.33% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 18-20 against the Run Line (-1.85 Units / -4.03% ROI).
- 21-17 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.8 Units / 3.63% ROI
- 17-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.7 Units / -13.4% ROI
- 20-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.35 Units / 3.28% ROI
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Greinke has a strike rate of 84% (91/108) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 68% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .314 (37-for-118) against Zack Greinke’s non-fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .221 — first Percentile.
Zack Greinke has allowed a slugging percentage of .551 (65 Total Bases / 118 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .358 — second Percentile.
Zack Greinke has walked 7 of 176 batters (4%) this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 91st Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Adrian Houser has a strike rate of just 56% (272/482) with runners in scoring position since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 22% (61/279) against Adrian Houser with runners in scoring position since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 32% — second Percentile.
Adrian Houser has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 54% (199/367) of opposing batters since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
The last hit on a Adrian Houser slider was June 24th, 2022. Hitters are 0 for their last 18 in ABs ending on his slider. — Bryce Elder has the longest active streak at 29.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Royals are just 5-54 (.085) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .350.
The Royals are just 1-13 (.071) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
The Royals are just 8-10 (.444) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .736.
The Royals are just 3-5 (.375) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .687.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Brewers are just 4-9 (.308) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .575.
The Brewers are 16-2 (.889) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Brewers are 20-12 (.625) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are just 0-17 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 16% at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Royals hitters are slugging .416 with two-strikes over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .275.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 33% on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Royals hitters have put 44% of balls in play to the right side of the field this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have 111 strikeouts in 358 PA’s (31%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .598 (358 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .745.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .324 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Brewers hitters have an OBP of just .274 (358 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .326.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have walked 162 of 1,771 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Royals have won just 11% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Royals have won just 19% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Brewers pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Brewers pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since the 2021 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers pitchers have 40 three-pitch strikeouts this season — tied for fewest in MLB.
Brewers vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Luis UrÃas (Brewers): Hamstring, D60
- Matthew Bush (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Kyle Isbel (Royals): Hamstring, D10
- Nicholas Lopez (Royals): Appendicitis, D10
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Salvador Perez (Royals): Vision, Day-to-Day
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Ryan Yarbrough (Royals): Head, D15
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Drew Waters (Royals): Oblique, D10
- Diego Hernandez (Royals): Shoulder, D60
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