- The Cubs are -150 favorites vs the Royals
- Royals vs Cubs Over / Under today: 10.5 Runs
- Royals / Cubs TV Channel: MARQ | FDKC
The Kansas City Royals (+140) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-170) on Wednesday, July 23, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago, IL, IL.
This season, the Royals are 49-53 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 50-51 ATS.
Royals vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Royals starting pitcher: Seth Lugo 6-5, 2.95 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Colin Rea 8-3, 3.82 ERA
Royals vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -145 | O 10.5 -115 | +140 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +118 | U 10.5 -105 | -170 |
Royals vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 56.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Salvador Perez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 6 away games (+18.30 Units / 305% ROI)
- Jac Caglianone has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+15.55 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jac Caglianone has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+13.90 Units / 56% ROI)
- Jac Caglianone has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.75 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jac Caglianone has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+12.05 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Carson Kelly has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games at home (+11.80 Units / 197% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+11.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.80 Units / 52% ROI)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+8.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.15 Units / 35% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 70 of their last 102 games (+36.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 58 of their last 94 games (+19.35 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 40 away games (+18.55 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 60 of their last 101 games (+15.20 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 39 away games (+13.15 Units / 31% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 49 games at home (+15.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 95 games (+13.85 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 16 games at home (+10.45 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 16 games at home (+9.85 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 49 games at home (+9.05 Units / 16% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 52-50 against the Run Line (-10.05 Units / -6.97% ROI).
- 49-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.6 Units / -3.76% ROI
- 40-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -26.17 Units / -23.55% ROI
- 61-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +16.85 Units / 14.87% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 50-51 against the Run Line (-0.58 Units / -0.48% ROI).
- 60-41 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.75 Units / 8.01% ROI
- 50-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.05 Units / -0.05% ROI
- 46-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.2 Units / -8.22% ROI
Cubs vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -350 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -350 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -350 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -400 |
Cubs vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jac Caglianone (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Cubs vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
Cubs vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seth Lugo (KC) | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
| Colin Rea (CHC) | 3.5 -120 | 3.5 -110 |
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .183 (11-for-60) against Seth Lugo on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .334 — 100th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has a first-pitch in-zone of 67% (288/431) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 56% — 100th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has a first-pitch strike rate of 70% (301/431) this season — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 98th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has a first-pitch in-zone of 71% (53/75) this month (3 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 56% — 100th Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .042 (1-for-24) against Colin Rea when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (3 games) — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .226 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .067 (1-for-15) against Colin Rea when going through the lineup the first time in a game in his last two starts — tied for 6th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .225 — 94th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .045 (1-for-22) against Colin Rea with two-strikes in his last two starts — tied for 5th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .152 — 94th Percentile.
Colin Rea has a strikeout rate of just 18% (81 SO in 455 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Royals were just 4-50 (.074) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Royals are just 2-42 (.045) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .092.
The Royals are 44-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .957.
The Royals are 17-2 (.895) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .799.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Cubs are 60-41 (.594) this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 2-29 (.065) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .122.
The Cubs are 26-6 (.812) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .635.
The Cubs are 31-5 (.861) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .744.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have drawn walks in 6% of their PA’s against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .888 (692 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.066.
Royals hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals hitters have drawn walks in 6% of their PA’s against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are slugging .464 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .394.
Cubs hitters have grounded into 41 double plays in 670 opportunities (6%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs hitters are slugging .440 against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .385.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of just .289 (423 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Royals pitchers over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 3.50 (906.0 IP) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.09.
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 3.53 (449.1 IP) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.26.
The longest HR allowed by the Royals pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 519.4 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cubs pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Cubs pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Cubs pitchers walked 127 of 1,437 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
More MLB Reading:
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