- The Diamondbacks are -140 favorites vs the Royals
- Royals starting pitcher: Brad Keller
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Thomas Henry
- Watch the game on BSAZ
The Kansas City Royals (+115) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-140) on Monday, April 24, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Diamondbacks are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Royals vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
This season, the Royals are 5-17 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 14-9 ATS.
Royals vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -160 | O 10 +100 | +115 |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +135 | U 10 -120 | -140 |
Royals vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nicky Lopez has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.50 Units / 45% ROI)
- Nicky Lopez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.05 Units / 38% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Hits Over in his last 6 away games (+7.00 Units / 57% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+6.20 Units / 40% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+6.10 Units / 34% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alek Thomas has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+10.65 Units / 49% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+9.70 Units / 75% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Runs Over in his last 8 games at home (+8.60 Units / 101% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Over in his last 6 games (+7.40 Units / 64% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Freddy Fermin | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Nate Eaton | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
Diamondbacks vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Freddy Fermin | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Nate Eaton | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Matt Duffy | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Diamondbacks vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Freddy Fermin | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Nate Eaton | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Diamondbacks vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tommy Henry | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
| Brad Keller | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -120 |
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.20 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 9 away games (+1.00 Units / 11% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.85 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 15 games (+6.95 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.30 Units / 72% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 22 games (+6.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.00 Units / 18% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 7-15 against the Run Line (-11.05 Units / -40.48% ROI).
- 5-17 when betting on the Moneyline for -10 Units / -45.15% ROI
- 12-9 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.85 Units / 7.54% ROI
- 9-12 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.2 Units / -17.61% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 14-9 against the Run Line (+3.5 Units / 11.08% ROI).
- 12-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.15 Units / 21.46% ROI
- 12-9 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.05 Units / 7.99% ROI
- 9-12 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.95 Units / -15.77% ROI
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brad Keller has located his fastball up for a strike just 33% (20/61) of the time this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
Brad Keller has a strike rate of just 58% (215/368) this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — third Percentile.
Brad Keller has walked 13 of 87 batters (15%) this season — tied for 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — fifth Percentile.
Brad Keller has a strike rate of just 49% (35/71) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Royals are just 5-49 (.093) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .348.
The Royals are just 2-8 (.200) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .734.
The Royals are just 5-15 (.250) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .539.
The Royals are just 4-93 (.041) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Diamondbacks are just 100-33 (.752) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .872.
The Diamondbacks are just 110-23 (.827) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .910.
The Diamondbacks are just 0-10 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .037.
The Diamondbacks are just 36-20 (.643) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .811.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .259 (562 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .268 (789 PA’s) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Royals hitters have chased 35% of pitches out of the zone against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .554 (458 PA’s) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .724.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .277 (428 PA’s) on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Diamondbacks hitters have drawn 11 walks in 276 PA’s (4%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Diamondbacks hitters have drawn 45 walks in 842 PA’s (5%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .299 (840 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .326.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 6.98 (105.2 IP) over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.19.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Royals pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of 36% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Royals pitchers have walked 657 of 7,098 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have walked 99 of 857 batters (12%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .182 against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Diamondbacks vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joseph Mantiply (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D15
- Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Oblique, D15
- Kyle Lewis (Diamondbacks): Illness, D10
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Forearm, D10
- Mervyl Melendez (Royals): Back, Day-to-Day
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D15
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Drew Waters (Royals): Oblique, D10
- Diego Hernandez (Royals): Shoulder, D60
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