- The Royals are -105 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Royals vs Diamondbacks Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Royals / Diamondbacks TV Channel: DBTV | FDKC | KPNX | MLBN
The Kansas City Royals (-105) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-115) on Friday, July 4, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix, AZ, AZ.
This season, the Royals are 41-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 41-46 ATS.
Royals vs Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers Today:
- Royals starting pitcher: Kris Bubic 6-6, 2.24 ERA
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Eduardo Rodriguez 3-4, 5.11 ERA
Royals vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | -1.5 +160 | O 8.5 -120 | -105 |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -190 | U 8.5 +100 | -115 |
Royals vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+11.75 Units / 45% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 20 away games (+11.30 Units / 41% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- Mark Canha has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+7.85 Units / 70% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.85 Units / 58% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- James McCann has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+24.00 Units / 267% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+9.30 Units / 34% ROI)
- James McCann has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.35 Units / 47% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+8.35 Units / 30% ROI)
- Tim Tawa has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 52% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 88 games (+34.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 32 away games (+18.65 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 80 games (+18.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 54 of their last 87 games (+17.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 away games (+13.15 Units / 38% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 40 of their last 71 games (+16.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 44 of their last 71 games (+14.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 33 games (+12.10 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 37 games at home (+9.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 29 games (+3.45 Units / 10% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 46-42 against the Run Line (-7.5 Units / -5.93% ROI).
- 41-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.9 Units / -6.51% ROI
- 34-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -23.57 Units / -24.52% ROI
- 53-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +15.65 Units / 16.05% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 41-46 against the Run Line (-9.76 Units / -8.84% ROI).
- 43-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.9 Units / -10.76% ROI
- 46-37 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.1 Units / 5.3% ROI
- 37-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.3 Units / -13.99% ROI
Diamondbacks vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Randal Grichuk (ARI) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Diamondbacks vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Geraldo Perdomo (ARI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Josh Naylor (ARI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jonathan India (KC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Randal Grichuk (ARI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Diamondbacks vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr (ARI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Maikel Garcia (KC) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
Diamondbacks vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
| Kris Bubic (KC) | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (18/54) against Kris Bubic with runners in scoring position this season — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 30% (223/752) against Kris Bubic this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 88th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 48% (114/238) against Kris Bubic with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.
33% of Kris Bubic’s called strikeouts are elevated this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 88th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed a slugging percentage of .632 (43 Total Bases / 68 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .304 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .353 (24-for-68) against Eduardo Rodriguez’s low non-fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .197 — first Percentile.
Eduardo Rodriguez has a strikeout rate of just 15% (11 SO in 72 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 34% — first Percentile.
Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed an OPS of 1.121 (77 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .742 — first Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Royals were just 4-50 (.074) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Royals are just 24-51 (.320) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Diamondbacks (Ranks third runs scored) today.
The Royals are 37-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .956.
The Royals are 17-2 (.895) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .799.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Diamondbacks are just 39-4 (.907) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .956.
The Diamondbacks are 34-10 (.773) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Diamondbacks are just 37-8 (.822) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .907.
The Diamondbacks are just 7-10 (.412) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have put 42% of their swings in play with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Royals hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .881 (597 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.060.
Royals hitters have drawn walks in 7% of their PA’s this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .443 since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .468 against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .454 at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Royals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Royals have won 40% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Royals pitchers have won only 17% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
The Royals have allowed 3.66 runs per game (161/44) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of 50% with two-strikes over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 41%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
More MLB Reading:
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