- The Guardians are -190 favorites vs the Royals
- Royals starting pitcher: Ryan Yarbrough
- Guardians starting pitcher: Logan Allen
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Kansas City Royals (+155) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-190) on Monday, July 24, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Guardians are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Royals vs Guardians Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Royals are 28-73 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 49-50 ATS.
Royals vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -125 | O 8.5 +100 | +155 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +105 | U 8.5 -120 | -190 |
Royals vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 76.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- MJ Melendez has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 22 games (+18.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 24 away games (+11.80 Units / 24% ROI)
- Maikel Garcia has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 24 away games (+10.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 28 games (+9.60 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.60 Units / 48% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 19 games (+10.05 Units / 49% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+9.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 27 of his last 45 games (+8.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- Gabriel Arias has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 8 games (+8.50 Units / 74% ROI)
Guardians vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dairon Blanco | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Matt Duffy | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Guardians vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dairon Blanco | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Matt Duffy | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -225 |
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +135 | 1.5 -185 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
Guardians vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dairon Blanco | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Matt Duffy | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Guardians vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Allen | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -125 |
| Ryan Yarbrough | 2.5 -175 | 2.5 +130 |
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 56 of their last 97 games (+9.35 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 80 games (+7.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.25 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+2.75 Units / 28% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 44 games at home (+13.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 48 games (+11.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 57 games (+10.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 34 games at home (+6.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+5.65 Units / 14% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 39-62 against the Run Line (-33.55 Units / -27.16% ROI).
- 28-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -33.55 Units / -32.06% ROI
- 46-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.55 Units / -11.29% ROI
- 53-46 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.1 Units / 1.89% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 49-50 against the Run Line (-1.95 Units / -1.54% ROI).
- 49-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.5 Units / -8.34% ROI
- 41-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.85 Units / -17.21% ROI
- 54-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.5 Units / 8.76% ROI
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryan Yarbrough has averaged 71.5 MPH on sliders since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 103 total IP; League Avg: 85.0 — 0 Percentile.
Ryan Yarbrough has an average fastball velocity of just 86.8 MPH since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — 0 Percentile.
Ryan Yarbrough has averaged 71.3 MPH on sliders since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 167 total IP; League Avg: 85.1 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .500 (11-for-22) against Ryan Yarbrough in close and late situations since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: .243 — first Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Logan Allen has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 14.0 innings pitched — Josh Hader has the longest active streak at 21.1.
Logan Allen has pitched 13.0 straight innings without allowing an earned run — Michael Lorenzen has the longest active streak at 22.0.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .050 (1 GB hit out of 20 GBs) against Logan Allen with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: .248 — 99th Percentile.
Logan Allen has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 39% (12/31) of opposing batters over the last 30 days (2 games) — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Royals are just 7-14 (.333) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .682.
The Royals are just 7-23 (.233) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .611.
The Royals are just 6-22 (.214) after a win this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Royals are just 10-9 (.526) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .788.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Guardians are 27-86 (.239) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Guardians are 18-94 (.161) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .091.
The Guardians are 29-69 (.296) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .204.
The Guardians are 11-29 (.275) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .147.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 28% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Royals have won just 39% of games in which they have scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 66%.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .287 (2,699 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 26% on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,287 strikeouts in 7,220 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 492 strikeouts in 2,636 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,818 strikeouts in 9,910 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Royals have won just 19% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Royals pitchers have won only 13% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Royals pitchers have won only 11% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 149 of 2,352 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.49 (454.0 IP) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.20.
Guardians pitchers have allowed a run just 26% of the time after an opposing score this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Guardians vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Shane Bieber (Guardians): Elbow, D15
- Cal Quantrill (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Gavin Williams (Guardians): Blister, Day-to-Day
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Matthew Beaty (Royals): Concussion, D7
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D60
- Brad Keller (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Josh Taylor (Royals): Shoulder, D60
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